Economic Statecraft Tracker
The instruments of fifth-generation economic war, tracked — sanctions, tariffs, export controls, currency, industrial policy, and the kinetic edge — across the three operator-grids (US / China / BRICS), each action with a status and a receipt.
instrument × operator matrix · v1.0
UPDATED 2026-07-14
| Instrument | United States | China | BRICS bloc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency & payment chokepoint | Dominant Dollar clearing + OFAC/SDN list; ~$300B Russian reserves frozen 2022. The default off-switch. receipt → | Building CIPS + programmable e-CNY, but ~80% still rides SWIFT; RMB stuck near 2.1% of reserves. receipt → | Aspirational Gold + bilateral local-currency deals; no shared instrument. Buys exit optionality, not a currency. receipt → |
| Sanctions & designations | In force Largest program in history: 4,000+ on the Russia list; Venezuela tanker blockade Dec 2025. receipt → | Countering Anti-Foreign-Sanctions Law + rare-earth/critical-mineral export leverage as the counter-weapon. receipt → | Target Largely on the receiving end — which is precisely what drives the exit-building above. receipt → |
| Tariffs & trade coercion | Contested in court IEEPA emergency tariffs struck down by SCOTUS Feb 2026; Section 232 / 301 duties survive and expand. receipt → | Retaliatory Matched US tariffs; paired with rare-earth and critical-mineral export controls. receipt → | Exposed No collective tariff instrument; members negotiate bilaterally (USMCA review, EU deals). receipt → |
| Export & compute controls | In force BIS entity list; advanced-chip and lithography controls on China — the capability chokepoint. receipt → | Countering Gallium, germanium, and rare-earth export controls as the mirror-image leverage. receipt → | Exposed Mostly downstream of both — dependent on chips it cannot yet make. receipt → |
| Industrial policy & reindustrialization | Active — two toolkits CHIPS/IRA subsidy (2022) then tariff + a ~9.9% government equity stake in Intel (2025). receipt → | Dominant Made in China 2025; industrial support estimated ~4.5% of GDP (IMF), system-wide. receipt → | Varied State-capacity varies widely; no bloc-level program. receipt → |
| The kinetic edge | In force Cartel FTO → 'armed conflict' finding → 200+ dead at sea + the Venezuela raid. receipt → | None documented No comparable extraterritorial-strike posture on the public record. | Target Venezuela — a member's president captured under a narcoterrorism warrant. receipt → |
United StatesChinaBRICS bloc
hollow pill = on the receiving end
The three grids side by side: the US wields most instruments, China counters on a few, the BRICS bloc mostly builds exits. That asymmetry is the finding — and every cell in the US column is the reason a cell in the others exists.
▣ INSTRUMENT STATUS
UPDATED 2026-07-14
/ actions shown · 6 instruments
IN FORCE imposed / operational
IN NEGOTIATION pending / effective 2026
PROPOSED announced, not yet in force
STRUCK rolled back / struck down
OTHER unclassified
Every action-row auto-classifies by keyword match — the LED and left edge carry its state. Chips filter across all six instrument timelines at once.
The matrix above reads the three grids side by side; the timelines below track each instrument’s actual moves, newest logic first. Every row auto-classifies by status keyword — in force, in negotiation, proposed, or struck / rolled back. The companion argument is the research dossier Warfare by Other Means; the kinetic edge is documented in full at The Drug War Goes Kinetic. This tracks the method, not a team — every operator is held to the same standard, and characterizations are attributed, not adopted.
Sanctions & designations
| Date | Action | Operator | Target / Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | CISADA writes the secondary-sanctions playbook | US (Treasury) | Iran banks | In force | eCFR |
| Feb 2022 | ~$300B Russian central-bank reserves frozen; 7 banks cut from SWIFT | US + EU | Russia | In force | OMFIF |
| 2024 | Russia SDN program passes 4,000 designations — largest ever | US (OFAC) | Russia | In force | CNAS |
| Feb 2025 | Cartels designated FTO + SDGT | US (State) | Latin-American cartels | In force | White House |
| Dec 2025 | Blockade and seizure of sanctioned tankers | US | Venezuela / Iran | In force | Atlantic Council |
| ongoing | Anti-Foreign-Sanctions Law + rare-earth export leverage as counter | China | US / allies | In force | CSIS |
Tariffs & trade coercion
| Date | Action | Operator | Target / Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 | IEEPA “drug-trafficking” tariffs (25% Canada/Mexico, 10% China) | US | trade partners | Struck down | Bracewell |
| Apr 2025 | IEEPA “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs | US | all partners | Struck down | Tax Foundation |
| Feb 2026 | SCOTUS strikes IEEPA tariffs 6-3 (Learning Resources v. Trump) | SCOTUS | — | Struck down | Bracewell |
| 2025-26 | Section 232 steel / aluminum / autos / copper duties | US | global | In force | Miller Nash |
| Jan 2026 | 25% Section 232 semiconductor tariff | US | chip imports | Effective Jan 2026 | White & Case |
| Jul 2026 | USMCA not renewed “in current form”; annual reviews to 2036 | US | Mexico / Canada | Under negotiation | White & Case |
Export & compute controls
| Date | Action | Operator | Target / Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2022 | BIS advanced-chip + lithography controls (fuller record on the AI Governance Tracker) | US | China | In force | CSIS |
| 2023-25 | Gallium, germanium, rare-earth export controls — the mirror leverage | China | US / allies | In force | Rhodium |
Currency & de-dollarization
| Date | Action | Operator | Target / Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | GENIUS Act: dollar stablecoins backed 1:1 by Treasuries | US | global retail | In force | Treasury |
| 2024 | Central banks buy 1,045t gold (third straight year over 1,000t) | BRICS + others | reserves | In force | World Gold Council |
| 2024 | mBridge reaches MVP; BIS steps back after BRICS-Bridge float | China / Gulf | cross-border | In negotiation | BIS |
| Q2 2025 | USD reserve share 56.3% — decline mostly FX valuation, not flight | — | reserves | In force | IMF |
| 2024 | BRICS common-currency mock-up floated, then walked back | BRICS | — | Proposed | Foreign Policy |
Industrial policy & reindustrialization
| Date | Action | Operator | Target / Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ongoing | Made in China 2025; industrial support ~4.5% of GDP (IMF) | China | targeted sectors | In force | CRS |
| Aug 2022 | CHIPS Act ($52.7B) + 10-year China-expansion bar | US | semiconductors | In force | CSIS |
| Aug 2022 | IRA manufacturing credits (clean-energy leg unwinding under OBBBA, 2025) | US | clean energy | In force | DOE |
| Feb 2025 | Sovereign wealth fund ordered (plan within 90 days) | US | — | Proposed | White House |
| Aug 2025 | US converts Intel CHIPS grants to ~9.9% equity stake ($8.9B) | US | Intel | In force | Intel 8-K |
The kinetic edge
| Date | Action | Operator | Target / Scope | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 | Cartel FTO designation as the armed-conflict on-ramp | US | cartels | In force | White House |
| Oct 2025 | “Non-international armed conflict” + “unlawful combatant” finding | US | cartels | In force | Al Jazeera |
| Sep 2025- | Operation Southern Spear boat strikes (210+ dead) | US | Caribbean / Pacific | In force | CNN |
| Jan 2026 | Operation Absolute Resolve: Venezuela raid, Maduro captured | US | Venezuela | In force | Task & Purpose |
Bridges
- Warfare by Other Means — the argument this tracker instruments
- The Drug War Goes Kinetic — the kinetic edge in full
- AI Governance Tracker — the compute-control instrument’s own tracker
- Convergence Table · Ratchet Clicks · Lawfare Tracker — the sibling instruments
- CBDCs and programmable money · Nation-state ratchets — the currency-grid research
Sources
- Primary + institutional throughout: OFAC/Treasury, SCOTUS (Learning Resources v. Trump), USTR, the Intel 8-K, CRS, CSIS, CNAS, IMF, the World Gold Council, and the BIS. Each row links its own receipt; characterizations (“weaponized,” “economic warfare,” “siege”) are attributed to their sources, never adopted as this page’s voice.