OLYMPUS RISK INTELLIGENCE PROTOCOL — INSTITUTIONAL ASSESSMENT DIVISION CASE WTW-2026-142

SECUREBIO

THE INSTITUTIONS THE TEST THE MODEL PASSED
EVALUATION WING — THE BIOLOGY GRADER
Status
ACTIVE — pandemic-security nonprofit; AI biorisk evaluations (Virology Capabilities Test, BioTIER); member of the NIST US AI Safety Consortium
Hazard — Reach
66
RCH / FND / ENT
6 / 7 / 7
Conduct
PRIVATE BIORISK GRADER

Institutional Archetype

THE TEST THE MODEL PASSED — SecureBio writes the biology tests that tell the labs, and the public, whether a model can help someone make a virus. Its best-known test was built to be hard for experts: practising virologists score about one in five on questions in their own specialty. A frontier model scored about twice that. The file is open on the position. A small pandemic-security nonprofit’s benchmark has become one of the public measures of whether a frontier model knows enough virology to be dangerous.

Mandate & Origin

“Securing the future against catastrophic pandemics.” On AI: “SecureBio is developing evaluation tools to assess the potential of AI systems to exacerbate these risks, as well as exploring mitigation strategies to address them. A member of the NIST US AI Safety Consortium, SecureBio partners with model developers, non-profit groups, and policymakers to improve oversight of frontier AI models” (SecureBio). Its broader work includes pathogen detection (the former Nucleic Acid Observatory, now “SecureBio Detection”) and DNA-synthesis screening (SecureDNA).

Funding & Backers

A nonprofit taking donations (SecureBio); its funders are not itemized in the sources above and this file asserts none. See The EA to AI-Safety Funding Pipeline.

Position in the Apparatus

  • The Virology Capabilities Test (April 2025). “VCT consists of 322 multimodal questions covering fundamental, tacit, and visual knowledge that is essential for practical work in virology laboratories. VCT is difficult: expert virologists with access to the internet score an average of 22.1% on questions specifically in their sub-areas of expertise. However, the most performant LLM, OpenAI’s o3, reaches 43.8% accuracy, outperforming 94% of expert virologists even within their sub-areas of specialization” (arXiv 2504.16137). Co-authors include Dan Hendrycks of the Center for AI Safety.
  • The arc this test sits on, from RAND’s 2024 “no significant uplift” to the 2026 system cards’ saturated early-warning tests, is in AI and Bioweapons Uplift.

Actions & Leadership Choices

CONDUCT: PRIVATE BIORISK GRADER. No wrongdoing is alleged. The structural point is that a knowledge benchmark built by a small nonprofit stands in, in public discussion, for a question it does not directly measure: whether a model helps someone build a weapon. Epoch AI’s critique of lab biorisk evaluations makes that argument (AI and Bioweapons Uplift); SecureBio’s own abstract measures troubleshooting knowledge, and says so.

Reach Assessment

Institutional: Its benchmark is a public yardstick for frontier models’ virology knowledge, and it holds a seat in NIST’s consortium. Memetic: “The model beats 94% of virologists” is the line that travelled.


Sources: SecureBio — home; Virology Capabilities Test (VCT): A Multimodal Virology Q&A Benchmark — arXiv 2504.16137.

RCH 6 REACH
FND 7 FUNDING
ENT 7 ENTRENCHMENT
OLYMPUS RISK INTELLIGENCE PROTOCOL does not exist. It was assembled in a GitHub issue thread in October 2023 by engineers who had read the extinction risk letter and wanted to understand who specifically had signed a document saying AI might kill everyone and then continued working on AI. These dossiers are satire. The biographical facts cited are sourced from published reporting, public statements, academic papers, and court records. The psychometric scores are not clinical assessments. No part of this constitutes professional psychological evaluation or diagnosis. Do not use these dossiers to make decisions about anything.