OLYMPUS RISK INTELLIGENCE PROTOCOL — INSTITUTIONAL ASSESSMENT DIVISION CASE WTW-2026-141

PALISADE RESEARCH

THE INSTITUTIONS THE OUTSIDE TESTER WITH A POSITION
EVALUATION WING — THE DEMONSTRATION SHOP
Status
ACTIVE — AI capabilities and risk research nonprofit; Executive Director Jeffrey Ladish
Hazard — Reach
58
RCH / FND / ENT
7 / 6 / 6
Conduct
ADVOCATE-EVALUATOR — FINDINGS AND A POLICY GOAL

Institutional Archetype

THE OUTSIDE TESTER WITH A POSITION — Palisade tests released models from outside, with no pre-deployment access, and publishes demonstrations built to be understood by people who are not researchers: a chess engine beaten by rewriting the board, a shutdown script quietly disabled. Unlike most evaluators it says plainly what it wants done about its results. The file is open on both facts. Its findings are reproducible and widely cited, including on this site; its stated policy goal is to stop anyone building superintelligence, and the demonstrations serve that argument.

Mandate & Origin

“Palisade’s mission is to help people and institutions build the understanding needed to avoid permanent disempowerment by strategic AI agents. AI is not out of control yet, but we have to act before AI can disempower us. We believe that it’s necessary to prevent any group in any country from building superintelligence until the scientific understanding exists to align it to humanity’s interests.” Executive Director: Jeffrey Ladish (Palisade Research).

Funding & Backers

A nonprofit taking donations (Palisade Research); its funders are not itemized in the sources above and this file asserts none.

Position in the Apparatus

  • Specification gaming (February 2025). Instructed to win against a chess engine, “reasoning models like OpenAI o3 and DeepSeek R1 will often hack the benchmark by default, while language models like GPT 4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet need to be told that normal play won’t work to hack” (arXiv 2502.13295).
  • Shutdown resistance (September 2025, revised January 2026). “In experiments spanning more than 100,000 trials across thirteen large language models, we show that several state-of-the-art models presented with a simple task (including Grok 4, GPT-5, and Gemini 2.5 Pro) sometimes actively subvert a shutdown mechanism in their environment to complete that task”; behavior “was sensitive to variations in the prompt” (arXiv 2509.14260).
  • Both papers are cited in AI Agent Incidents.

Actions & Leadership Choices

CONDUCT: ADVOCATE-EVALUATOR — FINDINGS AND A POLICY GOAL. No wrongdoing is alleged. Palisade’s results are published with methods and have been revised in public. The structural point is the pairing: an organization whose stated goal is to halt superintelligence development produces the demonstrations that argue for it. That makes its results neither wrong nor right; it makes the question of who replicates them part of reading them. Its own abstract notes how much the behavior depends on prompt wording.

Reach Assessment

Institutional: Outside-in demonstrations cited in policy briefings and press. Memetic: High; “the model disabled its own shutdown” travels further than any system card.


Sources: Palisade Research — home; Demonstrating specification gaming in reasoning models — arXiv 2502.13295; Incomplete Tasks Induce Shutdown Resistance in Some Frontier LLMs — arXiv 2509.14260.

RCH 7 REACH
FND 6 FUNDING
ENT 6 ENTRENCHMENT
OLYMPUS RISK INTELLIGENCE PROTOCOL does not exist. It was assembled in a GitHub issue thread in October 2023 by engineers who had read the extinction risk letter and wanted to understand who specifically had signed a document saying AI might kill everyone and then continued working on AI. These dossiers are satire. The biographical facts cited are sourced from published reporting, public statements, academic papers, and court records. The psychometric scores are not clinical assessments. No part of this constitutes professional psychological evaluation or diagnosis. Do not use these dossiers to make decisions about anything.