OLYMPUS RISK INTELLIGENCE PROTOCOL — HUMAN THREAT ASSESSMENT DIVISION CASE WTW-2026-223

MIKE MCCORMICK

THE APPARATUS THE SEED INVESTOR WHO SITS ON THE BOARD OF WHAT HE SEEDED
EVALUATION WING — THE FUNDER WITH A SEAT ON THE EVALUATORS' BOARDS
Status
ACTIVE — Founder and CEO, Halcyon Futures; board member, AVERI; board member, Transluce
Hazard
46.7
ATK / DEF / HP
5 / 5 / 4

Behavioral Archetype

THE SEED INVESTOR WHO SITS ON THE BOARD OF WHAT HE SEEDED — Subject left venture capital to fund AI-safety, biosecurity and security organizations, founded Halcyon Futures to do it, and now sits on the boards of two of the evaluators that hold seats at the AI Evaluator Forum: Transluce and AVERI. Halcyon is on AVERI’s published funders list and, in the words of Transluce’s co-founder, “was instrumental in helping Transluce get off the ground.” This profile scores the position, not the man.

The position is the seam between the money that starts an evaluator and the board that governs it. He is not an evaluator, writes no evaluation and holds no model-release gate. The documents show a former venture partner who turns grants into organizations: his AVERI bio credits Halcyon with helping to establish “more than sixteen new nonprofits and companies” since 2023. The interlock the research map flags is that one funder’s chief executive sits on two evaluator boards, one of which he helped fund into existence, while a Jacob Steinhardt-run evaluator and a Miles Brundage-run evaluator each list him as a director.

Essence Indicators

  • Founder and CEO, Halcyon Futures. AVERI’s team page: “Mike is a board member at AVERI and the founder and CEO of Halcyon Futures,” which it describes as “a nonprofit grant fund and venture capital fund dedicated to ensuring that AI is developed in ways that are safe, secure, and beneficial for humanity” (AVERI, team). Halcyon’s own about page calls itself “a grant-maker, incubator, and investment firm” (Halcyon Futures, about). Its home page states a funding range: “early-stage, mission-driven companies, often at the founding stage” (Halcyon Futures).
  • Board member, AVERI. AVERI’s team page lists three board members: Max Henderson, Mike McCormick and Grace Werner (AVERI, team). AVERI’s about page: “We require all employees, board members, and contractors to disclose potential conflicts of interest” (AVERI, about).
  • Board member, Transluce. Transluce’s About page lists a Board of Directors of three: Alex Allain, “Co-Founder, U.S. Digital Response”; Mike McCormick, “CEO, Halcyon Futures”; and Jacob Steinhardt, “Co-Founder & CEO, Transluce” (Transluce, About).
  • Halcyon funds AVERI. AVERI’s about page lists “Fathom, Halcyon Futures, Sympatico Ventures” among its funders and says “we do not accept cash donations or compensation from frontier AI companies or their executives” (AVERI, about). Brundage’s launch post: “AVERI’s funding comes from Halcyon Futures, Fathom, Coefficient Giving” and others (Brundage, 15 January 2026).
  • Halcyon seeded Transluce. Halcyon’s home page carries a testimonial about Transluce: “Halcyon was an early supporter and quickly provided seed funding” (Halcyon Futures). Steinhardt’s post of 29 September 2025 says Halcyon “was instrumental in helping Transluce get off the ground” (Steinhardt, X). The same home page credits Halcyon with grants behind another organization: “They made grants to fund the research that led to Goodfire.”
  • Earlier career. AVERI’s bio: “Prior to Halcyon, Mike was a Partner at the San Francisco-based venture capital firm GreatPoint Ventures” (AVERI, team). Halcyon’s about page: “Former Partner at GPV, a $1b+ AUM VC firm based in San Francisco” (Halcyon Futures, about). The MATS program’s page for Halcyon’s mentor stream adds “Since 2022, Mike has been focused on grants, investments and incubating new projects in AI security and global resilience” (MATS, Halcyon stream).
  • The filing. Halcyon Futures Inc (EIN 93-3537739, Santa Monica, California; 501(c)(3), exemption issued April 2024) lists Michael Mccormick as Chief Executive Officer: compensation $70,840 for FY2023 and $283,181 for FY2024, plus $23,033 other for FY2024. FY2024 revenue $2,116,383 (95.8 percent contributions), expenses $1,706,677, total assets $3,348,422; Max Henderson is listed as Secretary and Kellie Liket as Director, each at $0 (ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc).

Social Persona / Impression Management

Immediate impression: A venture investor in a nonprofit’s clothes. Halcyon describes itself as a grant-maker, incubator and investment firm; the Delphi Podcast episode listing frames his move as “Why Halcyon flipped the model: nonprofit first, fund second” (Delphi Podcast, 9 October 2025).

Energy: Builder register. The biographies count organizations established and capital raised in follow-on funding: “which have collectively raised more than a quarter-billion-dollars in follow-on funding” (AVERI, team). A Halcyon portfolio founder offers the testimonial “If I were starting something new, Mike would be my first call” (Halcyon Futures).

Impression management strategy: Introduces himself by the funder role and lets the funded organizations carry the safety claim. The one podcast appearance in the sources is a 103-minute interview whose listing names topics including “Pause AI vs. Build Baby Build” and “AI underwriting: how insurance can drive safety standards” (Delphi Podcast, above); the transcript is behind a sign-up and no words of his on those topics are quoted here.

Forensic Archetype Comparison

PatternMatch LevelEvidence
The Interlocking BoardHIGHDirector of Transluce and of AVERI, two of the AI Evaluator Forum’s eight members (Transluce, About; AVERI, team).
The Funder-DirectorHIGHHis organization is on AVERI’s funders list and is described by Transluce’s home-page testimonial as its seed funder, while he holds a seat on each board (AVERI, about; Halcyon Futures).
The IncubatorHIGH“helped establish more than sixteen new nonprofits and companies” (AVERI, team).
The Lab AlumnusNONENo lab employment documented; the earlier career is venture capital (AVERI, team).
The ConvenerLOWMentor for Halcyon’s stream in the MATS program; no convening of evaluators under his name is documented (MATS, Halcyon stream).

Psychometric Assessment

Trait scores are observations of the documented public role, not claims about private character. The public record on him is mostly organizational pages, and the evidence cells say what the record is.

Big Five (OCEAN) (inferred from the public role only):

TraitScoreEvidence
Openness75/100HIGH. Left a venture partnership for grants and incubation in a new field; moved the model from fund-first to nonprofit-first (MATS, Halcyon stream; Delphi Podcast).
Conscientiousness70/100MODERATE-HIGH. Two years of Form 990 filings for an organization with a stated grant range and a board that includes a separate Secretary (ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc; Halcyon Futures).
Extraversion65/100MODERATE-HIGH. Founder-facing role, podcast guest, program mentor and two board seats (Delphi Podcast; MATS, Halcyon stream).
Agreeableness65/100MODERATE. Portfolio founders describe him as a first call; no public dispute is documented (Halcyon Futures).
Neuroticism30/100LOW-MODERATE. Nothing in the record bears on this beyond steady seats at two boards since 2024 or earlier (Transluce, About).

Dark Triad (evidence-bound):

TraitScoreNotes
Narcissism25/100LOW. Founder-forward biographies and a podcast interview, in the register of the role; Transluce lists him by title only (AVERI, team; Transluce, About).
Machiavellianism30/100LOW-MODERATE. A funder who sits on the boards of organizations he funded is a structure of interest, but each seat and funding line is on the organizations’ own pages and AVERI states a conflict-disclosure rule (AVERI, about).
Psychopathy5/100VERY LOW. No conduct record of any kind (ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc).

MBTI: ENTJ-adjacent, inferred from the documented public role only. The rationale is the work product: a founder who assembles organizations, allocates grants and investments, and takes the board seat as part of the arrangement (AVERI, team; Halcyon Futures, about).

Threat Assessment

CategoryLevelNotes
Physical threatNONENo documented history of personal violence.
Institutional threatMODERATEFunder of one Forum evaluator (AVERI) and seed funder of another (Transluce) per their own pages, with a director seat at both. The hazard is the seam, not the man: the same chief executive sits on the money side and the governance side of two organizations that grade frontier labs (AVERI, about; Transluce, About).
Memetic threatLOWNo statements of his own on policy are quoted in the sources; his reach is through the organizations he funds.
Civilizational threatLOWStructural. He sits on the governance and funding side of organizations whose subject is catastrophic risk; he authors none of their conclusions.

Calibrated against Jacob Steinhardt (6/7/6, hazard 50), who runs the evaluator Subject sits on the board of; Marco Mascorro (4/5/3, hazard 40), the nearest person-level funder profile; and Sawyer Bernath (3/4/3, hazard 33.3) and Kyle Scott (4/4/3, hazard 36.7), the unpaid-fiduciary and operations seats. He sits above Mascorro on atk and hp because he holds board seats in addition to funding, and below Steinhardt on every component because he does not run or author the evaluator. Jaan Tallinn (7/10/9, hazard 84) is the ceiling for a funder whose money is his own and whose allocation is a standing institution; Halcyon is a charity with two filed years.

Score basis. Atk 5 is leverage: Halcyon is on AVERI’s funders list and described as Transluce’s seed funder, and he sits on both boards; the points under a higher number are that he runs neither organization and holds no release gate (AVERI, about; Halcyon Futures; Transluce, About). Def 5 is insulation: none of the funded evaluators pays him, but his charity’s revenue is 95.8 percent contributions and he has no tenure (ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc). Hp 4 is durability: organizations established and two transferable board seats; the points off are the short filing history (AVERI, team).

Alliance Map

AxisTieSinceSource
CorporateFounder and CEO, Halcyon Futures (grant-maker, incubator and investment firm; Form 990 CEO compensation $283,181 in FY2024)2023 per AVERI bio; filings FY2023AVERI, team; Halcyon Futures, about; ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc
CorporateBoard member, AVERI; Halcyon Futures is on AVERI’s funders list (“Fathom, Halcyon Futures, Sympatico Ventures”); Max Henderson sits on AVERI’s board and a Max Henderson is listed on Halcyon’s about page and as Secretary on Halcyon’s filing2025 to 2026AVERI, team; AVERI, about; Brundage; ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc
CorporateBoard member, Transluce; Halcyon provided seed funding per a testimonial on Halcyon’s home page and Steinhardt’s postBy Sep 2025Transluce, About; Halcyon Futures; Steinhardt, X
CorporateHalcyon grants credited on its home page with funding “the research that led to Goodfire”; venture capital before Halcyon: Partner, GreatPoint Ventures (GPV)Halcyon era; GPV to 2022Halcyon Futures; AVERI, team; MATS, Halcyon stream
RatchetNone documented. No membership, funding or partnership with the ratchet organizations themselves found in the sources checkedn/aSources above
MovementMentor, Halcyon stream, MATS program; Halcyon is listed among AVERI funders beside Fathom, Coefficient Giving and Geoff Ralston, funders also named across other Forum members2025 to 2026MATS, Halcyon stream; Brundage
AgencyNone documented. No government service, contract, grant, clearance or advisory post found in the sources checkedn/aSources above
LegalNone documented. No litigation as a party, settlement, amicus or counsel role found in the sources checkedn/aSources above
DiasporaNone documented. No diaspora-organization role, diaspora-PAC donation or foreign-agent registration found in the sources checkedn/aSources above

The overlap is the finding. One chief executive heads a grant-maker that appears on AVERI’s published funders list and is described as Transluce’s seed funder, and sits on the boards of both, two of the eight evaluators that founded the AI Evaluator Forum and wrote its minimum operating conditions for independent evaluation of frontier labs; and the name of a Halcyon officer, Max Henderson, also appears on AVERI’s board page. The documents show disclosed seats and published funding lines, not coordination.

Alignment Analysis

Stated alignment: The organizations state the mission. Halcyon: “a nonprofit grant fund and venture capital fund dedicated to ensuring that AI is developed in ways that are safe, secure, and beneficial for humanity” (as AVERI’s bio puts it). AVERI: “we do not accept cash donations or compensation from frontier AI companies or their executives” (AVERI, team; AVERI, about). Observed alignment: Consistent. Funding, seed support and board seats all sit in AI-safety, biosecurity and security organizations. Gap assessment: None documented. The question the record raises and does not settle is structural: a funder governs two evaluators it funds; AVERI says it requires board members to disclose conflicts, and the record shows disclosed seats and nothing more.

Interest: None argued in his name that the sources quote. The podcast listing names topics (“Pause AI vs. Build Baby Build,” a two-by-two of speed against slowdown and centralization against decentralization, AI underwriting) without his words, so there is no quoted position to score. What the structure pays, as documented: Halcyon’s CEO is paid $283,181 by a charity that is 95.8 percent contributions, and its funded organizations carry its seed grants into sectors it invests in; Halcyon’s home page lists a funding range for “early-stage, mission-driven companies” and “and sometimes much more.” The best case, in Halcyon’s own framing: a founder shortage is the bottleneck and nonprofit-first seed money fills it. Other factions served by the same arrangement: the philanthropic funders named beside Halcyon on AVERI’s list, and the evaluators, who get capital that is not lab money (AVERI, about; Halcyon Futures; ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc).

Convergent Drive Classification

Self-preservation: Holds a paid chief-executive seat at Halcyon and two unpaid board seats, at AVERI and Transluce (the board seats carry no figure on the pages cited). Goal preservation: Keeps seed funding and governance connected at the organizations his capital started. Resource acquisition: Halcyon’s FY2024 revenue was $2,116,383, 95.8 percent contributions; AVERI’s bio of him says the organizations Halcyon helped establish “have collectively raised more than a quarter-billion-dollars in follow-on funding” (ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc; AVERI, team). Self-improvement: From venture partner to founder of a grant-maker to director of two evaluators.

Subject is not an AI system. The drives appear anyway — in the funder’s seat.


Sources: AVERI — team; AVERI — about; Transluce — About; Halcyon Futures; Halcyon Futures — about; Brundage — The launch of AVERI; Steinhardt — X, 29 September 2025; MATS — Halcyon stream; Delphi Podcast — Mike McCormick; ProPublica — Halcyon Futures Inc.

ATK 5 ACCELERATION
DEF 5 PROTECTION
HP 4 RESILIENCE
OLYMPUS RISK INTELLIGENCE PROTOCOL does not exist. It was assembled in a GitHub issue thread in October 2023 by engineers who had read the extinction risk letter and wanted to understand who specifically had signed a document saying AI might kill everyone and then continued working on AI. These dossiers are satire. The biographical facts cited are sourced from published reporting, public statements, academic papers, and court records. The psychometric scores are not clinical assessments. No part of this constitutes professional psychological evaluation or diagnosis. Do not use these dossiers to make decisions about anything.