OLYMPUS RISK INTELLIGENCE PROTOCOL — HUMAN THREAT ASSESSMENT DIVISION CASE WTW-2026-251

MICHAEL AIRD

THE APPARATUS THE GRANTMAKER ON THE BOARD OF A PROGRAM HIS FUNDER IS THANKED FOR FUNDING
TALENT LAYER — THE DONOR'S PROGRAM DIRECTOR ON THE PIPELINE'S BOARD
Status
ACTIVE — AI Program Director, Longview Philanthropy (leads its AI grantmaking; by his own 20 December 2025 comment he was then about to join); Secretary and board member, MATS Research (unpaid, one hour a week on its FY2024 return); affiliate, Centre for the Governance of AI; advisor and co-founder, Institute for AI Policy and Strategy; formerly associate director, RAND Center on AI, Security, and Technology
Hazard
43.3
ATK / DEF / HP
5 / 4 / 4

Behavioral Archetype

THE GRANTMAKER ON THE BOARD OF A PROGRAM HIS FUNDER IS THANKED FOR FUNDING — Subject leads AI grantmaking at Longview Philanthropy and is the unpaid secretary of the board of MATS Research, the fellowship that supplies the labs and the evaluators with researchers. Longview’s bio says: “Michael leads our AI grantmaking. Michael joins us from the RAND Center on AI, Security, and Technology, where he was an associate director. He joined its predecessor in its early months and helped the center grow to 100+ people. He is also an affiliate at the Centre for the Governance of AI, an advisor and co-founder of the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy, and a board member at the MATS Program. He was previously a Research Scholar at the University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute” (Longview, Michael Aird). The hazard is not a release gate. He approves no model, grades no lab and writes no evaluation. It is a seam: the person who directs a funder’s AI grants also holds a fiduciary seat at a pipeline that thanks that funder for the donations it needs to run its programs, and he co-founded a policy shop that another MATS officer’s regrant budget has paid. This profile scores the position, not the man.

The position is the grantmaker’s seat beside the grantee’s board. Ryan Kidd runs MATS, Josh Jacobson presides over its board, and Subject is its secretary. Coefficient Giving and the Survival and Flourishing Fund, named beside Longview in MATS’s thanks, are funders profiled on this site; Longview is the one whose AI program director sits on MATS’s board. The interlock the research map flags is the one the pages disclose, and none of them says the seat and the thanks are connected.

Essence Indicators

  • AI Program Director, Longview Philanthropy. Longview’s team page lists “Michael Aird, AI Program Director” and says “Michael leads our AI grantmaking,” under a grantmaking section with a “Chief of Staff, AI Program.” Longview describes its process: “If, at the end of the two-stage investigation process, at least two members of our team regard the granting opportunity as exceptional, we recommend it to the philanthropists we advise.” On principle: “We never tell our donors simply what we think they want to hear.” Its Frontier AI Fund page: “The Frontier AI Fund (FAIF) is a private discretionary grantmaking fund managed by Longview Philanthropy,” which “can fund urgent opportunities, seed new organizations, and scale the highest-impact organizations in need of funding”; “In its first nine months of operation between December 2024 and September 2025, FAIF supported 18 organizations working on research, engineering, field-building, communications, and advocacy to shape the development and regulation of frontier AI systems.” The page offers the disbursement report only to donors: “We are happy to share our inaugural disbursement report with potential donors looking to donate over $100,000” (Longview, About; Longview, Grantmaking; Longview, Frontier AI Fund).
  • When he joined, in his own words. On 20 December 2025, under a Longview recruiting post on the EA Forum, the account “MichaelA” wrote: “I’ll soon be joining LV as the AI Program Director.” and “I’d be happy to chat to people at length about why I decided to join and my frank takes on the pros & cons, for people who get to final rounds or who seem obviously promising for these roles and need some convincing to apply! Feel free to reach out.” Of the decision: “I had a tough and intensive decision process myself (given I was also very excited about my other options)” (MichaelA, EA Forum comment, 20 December 2025). The account is tied to him by that comment and by the Longview post it answers.
  • Secretary and board member, MATS Research. MATS’s team page lists him under “Board of Directors” as “Board Member,” with the bio sentence “He joined its predecessor in its early months and helped the center grow to 100+ people,” and his board page repeats Longview’s wording. MATS’s FY2024 return, as ProPublica renders it, lists “Michael Aird” as Secretary at $0, with Joshua Jacobson as President and Abigail Olvera as Treasurer at $0; the return gives each of the three one hour a week, reports three voting members, all independent, and answers “No” to whether any officer or director has a family or business relationship with another. That return covers calendar 2024, a year that ended before his 20 December 2025 comment (MATS, Team; MATS, Board: Michael Aird; ProPublica, Mats Research Inc; ProPublica, FY2024 Form 990).
  • MATS thanks Longview. MATS’s March 2026 report on talent needs: “We also thank Coefficient Giving, the Survival and Flourishing Fund, and Longview Philanthropy, without whose donations we would be unable to run upcoming programs or retain team members essential to this report” (MATS, AI Safety Talent Needs in 2026). MATS’s transparency page, which lists its 2024 and 2025 cash gifts by donor and date, carries no Longview line (MATS, Transparency). See MATS, Open Philanthropy and Survival and Flourishing Fund.
  • GovAI and IAPS. GovAI’s people page lists him under “Affiliates” with “Michael is the AI Program Director at Longview Philanthropy,” and its own page for him reads “Michael Aird / Affiliate.” IAPS’s team page lists “Michael Aird” under “Affiliates” with the title “Advisor”; Longview and MATS call him “an advisor and co-founder” (GovAI, People; GovAI, Michael Aird; IAPS, Our team). Ryan Kidd’s Manifund ledger lists $5,000 to “AI Policy work @ IAPS” on 9 January 2024, a project created by IAPS’s director Peter Wildeford (Manifund, Ryan Kidd; Manifund, AI Policy work @ IAPS). See GovAI.
  • Earlier work. Longview’s bio: associate director at the RAND Center on AI, Security, and Technology (“He joined its predecessor in its early months and helped the center grow to 100+ people”; MATS’s bio carries the same sentence) and, before that, Research Scholar at the University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute. His 8 November 2024 EA Forum comment: “(I was previously a grantmaker for EA Funds, and have been in the AI governance space for a few years.)” (Longview, Michael Aird; MATS, Team; MichaelA, EA Forum comment, 8 November 2024). See RAND Corporation.

Social Persona / Impression Management

Immediate impression: The grantmaker who writes. His EA Forum profile (account “MichaelA”) lists four sequences, “Nuclear risk research project ideas,” “Moral uncertainty,” “Risks from Nuclear Weapons” and “Improving the EA-aligned research pipeline,” and at the time read 114 posts and 2,493 comments, with a join date in December 2018 (EA Forum, MichaelA). No personal site, talk transcript or X account is linked from any page read.

Energy: Advisory and public-spirited in register. His comments offer help in the first person: “feel free to message me. There’s a set of orgs I’m confident are things that (a) non-OP donors are better suited than OP to funding and (b) people like me and OP grantmakers think are good. These are what I give to myself.” (MichaelA, EA Forum comment, 8 November 2024).

Impression management strategy: Candor about the choice, silence on the list. He tells readers he is available to explain his own decision “and my frank takes on the pros & cons,” and tells small donors he has a list, without naming it. Longview’s own pages do the same for its funds: the process is published and the grantees of the discretionary fund are not.

First-hand exhibits. The comments quoted above, 20 December 2025 and 8 November 2024, are his own words and the only ones in the record read.

Forensic Archetype Comparison

PatternMatch LevelEvidence
The GrantmakerHIGHLeads a funder’s AI program and a discretionary fund. First-hand: “Michael leads our AI grantmaking” (Longview, Michael Aird).
The Funder-DirectorMODERATEA grantmaker’s staff post and a board secretary’s seat at a pipeline that thanks his employer (MATS, Team; MATS, AI Safety Talent Needs in 2026).
The Revolving DoorMODERATEFrom a federally chartered research corporation’s AI center and an Oxford institute to a philanthropic advisor; dates on no page read (Longview, Michael Aird).
The IncubatorMODERATECo-founder of IAPS per Longview and MATS; IAPS’s own page lists him as advisor (IAPS, Our team).
The GatekeeperLOWA recommendation to donors who decide (“we recommend it to the philanthropists we advise,” Longview, Grantmaking); no release gate.
The Lab AlumnusNONENo lab employment documented (Longview, Michael Aird).

Psychometric Assessment

Trait scores are observations of the documented public role, not claims about private character.

Big Five (OCEAN) (inferred from the public role and public record only):

TraitScoreEvidence
Openness80/100HIGH. A research scholar at FHI, an associate director at RAND’s AI center, an EA Funds grantmaker and a funder’s program director; forum sequences on nuclear risk, moral uncertainty and research careers (EA Forum, MichaelA; Longview, Michael Aird).
Conscientiousness80/100HIGH. 114 posts and 2,493 comments on one account, and a signing officer’s seat on a return with a posted conflict-of-interest policy (EA Forum, MichaelA; ProPublica, Mats Research Inc).
Extraversion55/100MODERATE. Offers conversations to strangers at length and to “people who get to final rounds”; no talk or interview read (MichaelA, EA Forum comment, 20 December 2025).
Agreeableness70/100MODERATE-HIGH. Writes to correct a misreading of his own advice “ideally complemented by heuristics” and offers donors his list; the register is helpful (EA Forum, MichaelA).
Neuroticism25/100LOW. Describes a “tough and intensive decision process” in measured terms (MichaelA, EA Forum comment, 20 December 2025).

Dark Triad (evidence-bound):

TraitScoreNotes
Narcissism12/100LOW. Bios are third-person and organizational; the comments offer help rather than credentials (Longview, Michael Aird).
Machiavellianism25/100LOW. A structure of interest: a grantmaker’s post and a board seat at a program his employer is thanked for funding, each on an organization’s own page and the seat unpaid. Observation of the documented role, not a claim about private character (MATS, Team; ProPublica, Mats Research Inc).
Psychopathy5/100VERY LOW. No conduct record of any kind in the sources.

MBTI: INTJ-adjacent (“The Architect”), inferred from the documented public role only. The rationale is the work product: a published two-stage investigation process, a research-pipeline sequence and structured advice on applying for jobs. First-hand rationale: his comment “My standard take is that people should have a somewhat low bar for applying to things that might be a great fit” (MichaelA, EA Forum comment, 20 December 2025). This is a style inference, not a test result.

Threat Assessment

CategoryLevelNotes
Physical threatNONENo documented history of personal violence.
Institutional threatMODERATELeads a funder’s AI grantmaking and a discretionary fund whose grantees are not published, and holds a fiduciary seat at a pipeline that thanks the funder. No gate; the seam is the hazard (Longview, Frontier AI Fund; MATS, Team).
Memetic threatLOWForum posts and comments reach the field’s own readers; no mass-audience statement in the record read (EA Forum, MichaelA).
Civilizational threatLOWStructural. He sits on the funding side of the organizations whose subject is catastrophic risk; he authors none of their conclusions.

Score rationale. The receipts: Longview’s bio and fund pages, MATS’s team and board pages and March 2026 report, the FY2024 return, GovAI’s and IAPS’s pages, his EA Forum comments and Longview USA’s filing. Attack 5, defense 4, durability 4, hazard 43.3. Peers: Ben Goldhaber (4/3/3, hazard 33.3), a program officer at Coefficient Giving: a point below on attack because he allocates a share of a larger fund at officer rank where Subject leads a program and a discretionary fund, a point below on defense and on durability because Subject holds a director post and a co-founded organization; Erin Robertson (4/3/4, hazard 36.7), an associate program officer: a point below on attack and defense for the same rank reasons and level on durability, since her LASR Labs and his IAPS are organizations each no longer runs; Mike McCormick (5/5/4, hazard 46.7), a funder’s chief executive with seats on two evaluator boards: level on attack and durability and a point above on defense because he founded the funder; and Luke Muehlhauser (7/8/7, hazard 72), who leads AI governance grantmaking at a far larger funder: two points above on attack, four on defense and three on durability. Attack 5 is the number most open to challenge: it rests on a title, a discretionary fund whose grantees are unpublished and a board seat, and no page says he decided any grant.

Score basis. ATK 5 is leverage: he leads AI grantmaking and the Frontier AI Fund can “seed new organizations, and scale the highest-impact organizations,” and he is secretary of the pipeline’s board (Longview, Michael Aird; Longview, Frontier AI Fund). DEF 4 is insulation: a staff post at a charity that is 99.9 percent contributions and an unpaid board seat, with no documented term (ProPublica, Longview Philanthropy USA Inc). HP 4 is durability: a co-founded policy organization, a program he leads and a seat that passes to a successor (IAPS, Our team).

Alignment Analysis

Stated alignment: Longview’s: “Our goal is for every grant we recommend to help as many individuals as possible, as much as possible, counting everyone equally—including future generations,” and “Inspired by venture capital, we seek to uncover neglected opportunities with high-reward potential” (Longview, Grantmaking). Observed alignment: Consistent. The career runs from an Oxford institute to a federally funded research center’s AI group to a donor-advisory fund, and the unpaid roles sit in the same field. Gap assessment: One documented, and it is an absence. MATS thanks Longview among the donations it cannot run without and lists no Longview line on the page that itemizes its gifts; Longview publishes its process but not the grantees of its discretionary fund; and the board seat is on both pages. What the record cannot settle is the amount and date of any Longview gift to MATS, and whether the return’s independence count was made with the thank-you in view; neither page says.

Interest: Documented, never motive, never a verdict.

  1. Position: donors outside Open Philanthropy should fund a set of AI governance and safety organizations that grantmakers rate (his comment: “There’s a set of orgs I’m confident are things that (a) non-OP donors are better suited than OP to funding and (b) people like me and OP grantmakers think are good,” MichaelA, EA Forum comment, 8 November 2024). What adoption pays: a donor-advisory fund with a discretionary pool is the channel for exactly that money, and Longview “recommend[s] it to the philanthropists we advise” (Longview, Grantmaking). Best case: Longview’s own: “We never tell our donors simply what we think they want to hear.” Others who gain: the unnamed organizations on his list and the donors who follow it.
  2. Position: seed and scale organizations that prepare for frontier AI (Longview: “Seed, support, and scale projects that prepare the world for frontier AI,” Longview, Frontier AI Fund). What adoption pays: the funder’s mandate widens, and its AI program director holds a board seat at one of the fellowships that supplies those organizations with staff. Best case: Longview’s: the fund “can fund urgent opportunities.” Others who gain: the organizations seeded; see Halcyon Futures, a funder-incubator in the same field.

Alliance Map

AxisTieSinceSource
CorporateAI Program Director, Longview Philanthropy (leads its AI grantmaking and the Frontier AI Fund’s program; U.S. entity Longview Philanthropy USA Inc, EIN 93-2664730, FY2024 revenue $10,007,719, 99.9 percent contributions); formerly associate director, RAND Center on AI, Security, and TechnologyJoining “soon” as of 20 December 2025Longview, Michael Aird; ProPublica, Longview Philanthropy USA Inc; MichaelA, EA Forum comment
CorporateSecretary and board member, MATS Research ($0, one hour a week); Longview thanked by MATS; board beside Josh Jacobson; CEO Ryan KiddFY2024 return; March 2026ProPublica, Mats Research Inc; MATS, AI Safety Talent Needs in 2026
RatchetNone documented: no membership, funding or partnership with SPLC, ADL, CCDH, GDI, NewsGuard, ISD, Graphika or SIO on the Longview, MATS, GovAI, IAPS or EA Forum pages readn/aLongview, Michael Aird
MovementAffiliate, GovAI; advisor and co-founder, IAPS (Kidd’s Manifund ledger lists $5,000 to the IAPS project on 9 January 2024); former Research Scholar, Future of Humanity Institute; former EA Funds grantmaker (his comment; fund and dates unstated)GovAI and IAPS undatedGovAI, People; IAPS, Our team; Manifund, Ryan Kidd; MichaelA, EA Forum comment
AgencyNone documented: no government post, contract, grant or clearance on the pages read; RAND is a research nonprofit and its CAST is listed only as a former employer without dates or sponsorsn/aLongview, Michael Aird
LegalNone documented against his name: no litigation, settlement, amicus filing or regulatory action found on the pages readn/aLongview, Michael Aird
DiasporaNone documented: no diaspora-organization role, diaspora-PAC gift or FARA / FITS / FITAA registration found against his name on the pages readn/aLongview, Michael Aird

The Corporate and Movement rows overlap in people and in time. The funder’s AI program director sits on the board of a program his funder is thanked for funding, beside the CEO whose own regrant ledger paid the policy shop Subject co-founded and the president who runs operations at an incubator the CEO asks to be funded. The overlap is the finding: every seat is disclosed, the return reports the board independent, and no page says any seat decided any grant. See the small world.

Convergent Drive Classification

Self-preservation: A staff post at a donor-advisory charity and an unpaid board seat, neither with a documented term (ProPublica, Longview Philanthropy USA Inc). Goal preservation: Keeps the same object in his hands across employers: AI policy and governance, from an Oxford institute to RAND to a grantmaker. First-hand: “Michael leads our AI grantmaking” (Longview, Michael Aird). Resource acquisition: The documented resource is a discretionary fund and a donor network: the fund’s first nine months supported 18 organizations, and its report goes to donors above $100,000 (Longview, Frontier AI Fund). No compensation figure for him is on any page read. Self-improvement: From a Research Scholar post to an associate director and then a program director. First-hand: “I had a tough and intensive decision process myself” (MichaelA, EA Forum comment, 20 December 2025).

Subject is not an AI system. The drives appear anyway — in the grantmaker on the board.


Public footprint: Longview bio · MATS board page · GovAI · EA Forum, MichaelA.

Sources: Longview — Michael Aird; Longview — About; Longview — Grantmaking; Longview — Frontier AI Fund; ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer — Longview Philanthropy USA Inc; MATS — Team; MATS — Board: Michael Aird; MATS — Transparency; MATS — AI Safety Talent Needs in 2026; ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer — Mats Research Inc; ProPublica — FY2024 Form 990; GovAI — People; GovAI — Michael Aird; IAPS — Our team; Manifund — Ryan Kidd; Manifund — AI Policy work @ IAPS; EA Forum — MichaelA; EA Forum — comment, Longview is hiring; EA Forum — comment, Advisors for Smaller Major Donors?.

ATK 5 ACCELERATION
DEF 4 PROTECTION
HP 4 RESILIENCE
OLYMPUS RISK INTELLIGENCE PROTOCOL does not exist. It was assembled in a GitHub issue thread in October 2023 by engineers who had read the extinction risk letter and wanted to understand who specifically had signed a document saying AI might kill everyone and then continued working on AI. These dossiers are satire. The biographical facts cited are sourced from published reporting, public statements, academic papers, and court records. The psychometric scores are not clinical assessments. No part of this constitutes professional psychological evaluation or diagnosis. Do not use these dossiers to make decisions about anything.