OLYMPUS RISK INTELLIGENCE PROTOCOL — INSTITUTIONAL ASSESSMENT DIVISION CASE WTW-2026-224

HALCYON FUTURES

THE INSTITUTIONS THE SEED FUNDER WITH A SEAT
FUNDING LAYER — THE INCUBATOR THAT SEEDS THE EVALUATORS
Status
ACTIVE — grant-maker, incubator and investment firm; Halcyon Futures Inc, a Delaware 501(c)(3) in Santa Monica, California (EIN 93-3537739, exemption issued April 2024); Founder and CEO Mike McCormick; FY2024 revenue $2,116,383, grants paid $611,455; seed funder of Transluce and a listed funder of AVERI
Hazard — Reach
40
RCH / FND / ENT
5 / 4 / 3
Conduct
STRUCTURAL — SEED MONEY, BOARD SEATS AND RELATED CHARITIES ACROSS THE EVALUATOR LAYER'S FUNDING AND GOVERNANCE

Institutional Archetype

THE SEED FUNDER WITH A SEAT — Halcyon Futures calls itself “a grant-maker, incubator and investment firm” that backs “exceptional founders building in AI safety, cybersecurity and biosecurity” (Halcyon Futures). Its product is the organization: it finds the founder, makes the first grant, introduces the co-founders and joins the board. Its home page lists that last step among its services: “We’ve launched more than 30 projects, introducing co-founders, shaping strategies, providing seed funding and joining boards.” The evaluator layer the labs now cite is among the projects. Transluce’s two co-founders say on Halcyon’s page that Halcyon “provided seed funding and operational support to get Transluce off the ground,” AVERI’s about page lists Halcyon among its funders, and the co-founder of AIUC, an AI audit-and-insurance company, says Halcyon “has been instrumental for my journey to founding AIUC.” Three charities on Halcyon’s own tax return as related organizations are Fathom, Ergo Impact and Sentinel Bio: the first is a named funder of AVERI and the third is a named primary funder of SecureBio. This profile scores the position, not the founder, the grantees or the people who sit on the boards.

The finding is leverage by position, not volume. Halcyon paid out $611,455 in grants in FY2024; the Survival and Flourishing Fund recommended $63.13MM in its 2026 round. What Halcyon holds is a seat at the start of an organization’s life and, in two cases, on its board afterwards. The seats and the money run both ways at once, which is the interlock the evaluator alliances map flags. Its Founder and CEO is profiled at Mike McCormick.

Mandate & Origin

Self-description. The home page: “Building resilience for the era of transformative AI,” and “Halcyon is a grant-maker, incubator and investment firm. We back exceptional founders building in AI safety, cybersecurity and biosecurity.” The about page says the same in nearly the same words (Halcyon Futures; Halcyon Futures, about). The Form 990 gives the mission twice: “At Halcyon Futures, we challenge accomplished leaders to solve the world’s biggest problems, and we support them along the way,” and “Halcyon Futures is home to established leaders from business, technology, and public policy. We help them found new ambitious projects or take on senior roles at existing high-impact organizations” (ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc, FY2024 Form 990).

Origin. The founder’s bio: “Left VC in 2022 to focus on global catastrophic risks, and launched Halcyon in late 2023” (Halcyon Futures, about). The legal entity: Halcyon Futures Inc, Santa Monica, California, EIN 93-3537739, formed in Delaware in 2023, tax exemption issued April 2024 (ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc; ProPublica, FY2024 Form 990). Its Terms of Use name the same entity: “Halcyon Futures Inc., a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt not-for-profit organization” (Halcyon Futures, Terms). Founder Mike McCormick is described by AVERI as the “founder and CEO of Halcyon Futures, a nonprofit grant fund and venture capital fund dedicated to ensuring that AI is developed in ways that are safe, secure, and beneficial for humanity” (AVERI, team).

What it offers, in its words.

  • Career transitions: “Grants and mentorship for leaders at career inflection points searching out their next big project. Grants up to $500K.”
  • Nonprofit seed grants: “Funding to get new nonprofit projects off the ground. We move fast, often wiring money within days. Grants up to $3M.”
  • Venture capital: “We back early-stage, mission-driven companies, often at the founding stage. Investments up to $5M, and sometimes much more.”
  • Introductions: “A deep network at frontier AI labs, startups, nonprofits, VC firms, philanthropic funders and governments.”
  • Retreats: “Multi-day founder retreats, salon dinners, and convenings that bring exceptional builders together.” (Halcyon Futures)

Its own counts. The home page prints three figures: “30 new orgs and companies launched,” “$500M in follow-on funding raised” and “200 career transitions supported.” The about page: “So far, we’ve supported the launch of 30 new projects that have gone on to raise more than $500 million in funding.” AVERI’s biography of its CEO gives an earlier count: “Since founding Halcyon in 2023, Mike has helped establish more than sixteen new nonprofits and companies in the fields AI alignment, cybersecurity and global resilience, which have collectively raised more than a quarter-billion-dollars in follow-on funding” (Halcyon Futures; Halcyon Futures, about; AVERI, team). The $500 million is money raised by the projects, counted by Halcyon; it is not money Halcyon moved.

Where the work is aimed. Halcyon’s mentor stream for the MATS program (Autumn 2026) is led by its CEO and its investor Ross Matican: “Backing projects focused on product development and organization building in the areas of AI safety and alignment, biosecurity, and critical cybersecurity.” The stream names “Technologies for interpretability, scalable human oversight, and AI control and governance,” and the page says “Additionally, we are considering projects that amplify Halcyon’s efforts in field building,” with “Talent pipelines into AI safety, recruiting infrastructure, and public communications.” Matican’s bio: “At Halcyon, he focuses on investments and incubations in cyber defense, frontier AI verification and control, and biosecurity” (MATS, Halcyon stream).

The venture arm. The home page lists “Venture capital investments” as an offering, and AVERI calls Halcyon “a nonprofit grant fund and venture capital fund.” Neither Halcyon’s site nor its Terms name a separate venture entity; the Terms name only Halcyon Futures Inc. The FY2024 return reports no investments on its balance sheet (Part X lines 11, 12 and 13 are blank; assets are cash, savings, receivables and equipment) and lists no taxable related organization (Schedule R, Part IV is empty). The three related organizations it does list are charities (below). The pages cited do not say which entity holds the equity stakes its testimonials describe (Halcyon Futures; Halcyon Futures, Terms; ProPublica, FY2024 Form 990; ProPublica, Schedule R).

Who runs it. The about page lists seven people: Mike McCormick, Founder & CEO, “Former Partner at GPV, a $1b+ AUM VC firm based in San Francisco. Early investor in multiple unicorns”; Michael Chang, Partner, Biosecurity, “Former Cofounder and CEO Tether Therapeutics, and EIR at DARPA/In-Q-Tel focused on biosecurity”; Shelby Summerfield, Head of Operations, “Former Director of Scheduling and Advance for Andrew Yang’s presidential and mayoral campaigns, as well as COO of his nonprofit, Humanity Forward”; Ross Matican, Investor, “Previously worked on market research at Bessemer Venture Partners. Founder of Tailwinds, a product marketing consultancy for early-stage AI startups. BlueDot Impact alum”; Charlie Petty, Venture Partner, “Co-founder of an initiative at Stripe focused on reducing the threat of respiratory viruses”; Max Henderson, Venture Partner, “Max is the Co-founder and CEO of Ergo Impact” and “Max serves on several boards across AI safety and biosecurity”; and Nick Raushenbush, Operating Partner, “Former Cofounder and CEO of software company Shogun, which scaled to 20k+ paying customers, Series C, and $575M valuation” (Halcyon Futures, about). The about page lists no board.

Governance on the return. The FY2024 Form 990 reports three voting members of the governing body, two of them independent, and no family or business relationship among officers and directors. It lists Michael McCormick as Chief Executive Officer (40 hours a week; $283,181 reportable compensation, $23,033 other), Max Henderson as Secretary and Kellie Liket as Director (one hour a week each, $0), and Shelby Summerfield as Head of Operations ($153,662, $18,390 other). It reports a written conflict-of-interest policy, and Schedule O describes an annual statement from each covered person to a compliance officer. Principal officer on the return and signer: Michael McCormick, Chief Executive Officer (ProPublica, FY2024 Form 990; ProPublica, Schedule O).

Funding & Backers

Money in. The FY2024 return (calendar 2024, signed and submitted 17 November 2025) reports revenue of $2,116,383: $2,026,675 in contributions and grants and $89,708 in investment income. Expenses were $1,706,677 and year-end assets $3,348,422, made up of $110,894 in cash, $1,931,483 in savings and temporary cash investments, $1,300,750 in pledges and grants receivable and $5,295 in equipment; liabilities were $972,030 and net assets $2,376,392. The prior-year column of the same return prints revenue of $2,136,530, expenses of $169,844 and no grants paid; ProPublica’s data summary of the FY2023 return lists revenue of $3,567,280 and expenses of $141,458 (ProPublica, FY2024 Form 990; ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc). Contributions are 95.8 percent of FY2024 revenue.

Who the donors are. No donor is named on Halcyon’s site, and the public copy of its Schedule of Contributors carries no contributor names (Halcyon Futures; ProPublica, Schedule B). Halcyon does not appear as a recipient in the Survival and Flourishing Fund recommendation tables for 2024, 2025 or 2026 (Survival and Flourishing Fund, SFF-2024; SFF-2025; SFF-2026). See Survival and Flourishing Fund, Open Philanthropy (Coefficient Giving) and Schmidt Sciences for the funders that print their lists.

Money out, FY2024. Grants and similar amounts paid: $611,455. The return’s program statement: “In 2024, Halcyon ran programs such as conferences, meetings, and retreats related to its exempt purpose for Halcyon cohort members. The organization offered grants to Halcyon cohort members who were starting new mission-aligned organizations as well as to other nonprofit organizations.” Total program-service expenses: $1,353,027. Schedules I and F break the grants into four lines:

LineRecipientAmountPurpose as printed
Schedule I, Part IICenter for New Data (Atlanta, EIN 85-1498806)$100,000General support
Schedule I, Part IIClarity AI Research Inc (Sacramento, EIN 99-3262331)$65,000General support
Schedule I, Part IIManifold for Charity (San Francisco, EIN 88-3668801)$20,000General support
Schedule I, Part IIIDomestic individuals, 4 recipients$247,280Project development funding grant
Schedule I, Part IIIDomestic individual, 1 recipient$68,500Research and fundraising outreach for AI safety initiatives grant
Schedule F, Part IIndividuals in Europe$110,675Grantmaking

The six lines sum to the $611,455 on Part I, line 13. The individuals are not named. Neither Transluce nor AVERI appears among the three domestic organization grantees, and the prior-year column reports no grants paid; the filing does not say which entity or year carried the founding grant to Transluce that Halcyon’s home page describes (ProPublica, Schedule I; ProPublica, Schedule F; ProPublica, FY2024 Form 990).

The related charities. Schedule R, Part II lists three related tax-exempt organizations, each a Delaware 501(c)(3) with “Charitable programs” as its primary activity and no controlling entity printed. Part V reports no transactions with them (gifts, grants, loans, shared employees and the other listed items are all “No”).

Related organizationEINFY2024 gross receiptsIts own mission line
Fathom AI (San Francisco)93-4840479$12,128,490“Fathom AI’s mission is to find, build and scale innovative governance solutions for AI that foster public trust in AI, while unleashing the power of American innovation”
Ergo Impact Inc (San Francisco)99-2339731$3,731,127“Ergo Impact’s mission is to support solutions to large, global problems and promote the safe use of artificial intelligence, emerging biological technology and other emerging technologies in our society”
Sentinel Bio Inc (Washington, DC)99-3068480$10,595,173“Sentinel Bio is a new nonprofit organization focused on eliminating pandemics within our lifetimes”

(ProPublica, Schedule R; ProPublica, Fathom AI Inc; ProPublica, Ergo Impact Inc; ProPublica, Sentinel Bio Inc). Each of the four returns (Halcyon, Fathom, Ergo, Sentinel Bio) lists Max Henderson and Kellie Liket among its officers or directors: Halcyon as Secretary and Director; Fathom as Board Member and Board Member; Ergo Impact as Chief Executive Officer and President; Sentinel Bio as Treasurer and Secretary. Ergo’s own page describes them as “Max Henderson CO-FOUNDER, CEO” and “Kellie Liket CO-FOUNDER, PRESIDENT” (Ergo Impact). Fathom describes itself as “an independent nonprofit advancing policies to ensure AI is safe, secure, and trusted” (Fathom); see Fathom and Bri Treece. SecureBio’s assessment of GPT-6 Astra states: “We are primarily funded by Coefficient Giving, the Survival and Flourishing Fund, and Sentinel Bio” (SecureBio); see SecureBio.

The listing runs one way. Ergo Impact Inc’s 2025 return also lists Sentinel Bio as related, while Sentinel Bio’s FY2024 return and Fathom’s each answer No to the related-organizations question (Part IV, line 34) (ProPublica, Ergo Impact 2025 Form 990; ProPublica, Sentinel Bio FY2024 Form 990; ProPublica, Fathom AI Inc).

Institutional Voice & Intent

Halcyon’s public register is the founder testimonial and the count: short pages, three numbers and three quotes, no research output and no policy document under its name.

  • On the stakes: “AI is advancing faster than almost anyone predicted, and while it could be an unprecedented force for good, it could also bring risks, like misaligned systems, AI-enabled cyberattacks and bio-threats” (the home page’s section “The most consequential moment in human history”) (Halcyon Futures).
  • Goodfire’s founder and CEO Eric Ho, on the home page: “Halcyon believed in us early. They made grants to fund the research that led to Goodfire. Then they invested, introduced key early hires, and stood by us as a mission-aligned backer.” The panel carries the labels “Career Transition Grant,” “Halcyon Retreat,” “Intro’d Chief Scientist,” “Invested in Every Round” and “$150m Series B, $1.25B valuation.”
  • AIUC co-founder Rajiv Dattani: “Halcyon has been instrumental for my journey to founding AIUC – If I were starting something new, Mike would be my first call.” Labels: “Career Transition Grant,” “Halcyon Retreat,” “Invested in Every Round,” “$16M raised from top VCs.”
  • Transluce co-founders Jacob Steinhardt and Sarah Schwettmann: “Halcyon was an early supporter and quickly provided seed funding and operational support to get Transluce off the ground. They serve an invaluable role in the ecosystem.” Labels: “Halcyon Retreat,” “Made the Founding Grant,” “Joined Transluce’s Board,” “$20M Raised” (Halcyon Futures).
  • Steinhardt on X, 29 September 2025: Halcyon “was instrumental in helping Transluce get off the ground” (Jacob Steinhardt, X).

Stated intent: Back founders in AI safety, cybersecurity and biosecurity through grants, venture investment, introductions and board seats, so that “established leaders” found “new ambitious projects” (Form 990 mission).

Observed intent: A first-money-in vehicle whose named results include two Forum evaluators (Transluce, AVERI), an AI audit-and-insurance standard (AIUC), an interpretability company (Goodfire), and a list of related charities that fund or advise the same layer.

Gap: The record is more open on the seats than most funders’: each board seat is on the grantee’s own page, and AVERI names Halcyon on its funder list. What it does not show is how much Halcyon gave, when, and through which entity: its schedules do not list Transluce or AVERI as grantees, its donors are unnamed, and the equity stakes its testimonials describe do not appear on its balance sheet. AVERI’s disclosure rule reads “we do not accept cash donations or compensation from frontier AI companies or their executives” (AVERI, about); Halcyon’s home page links Thinking Machines Lab among its portfolio logos, and the page does not say what the logo denotes. The Forum’s own pages say its standard covers “conflict-of-interest disclosure and management, funding relationships, recusal, depth of system access, and transparency about the terms of an evaluation,” and AEF-1’s “Minimized Conflicts of Interest” principle lists “Organizational control” (AI Evaluator Forum; AI Evaluator Forum, AEF-1). The gap is structural: a standard for evaluator funding and control exists, and one funder’s chief executive and a second Halcyon-tied person hold two of AVERI’s three board seats.

Interest: Halcyon argues no policy position in its own pages. The one policy text with a Halcyon name on it is the AI Evaluator Forum’s letter “Minimum Conditions for Embedding Evaluators” (18 September 2026), signed by “Investor and Grantmaker, Halcyon Futures,” whom Halcyon’s about page lists as Ross Matican; the letter says that “all signatories sign in their personal capacity,” so the position is not scored to Halcyon. What each position the funded network argues would pay, as documented:

  • Independent evaluators embedded at frontier labs. Position, in the letter’s words: “We believe that all frontier AI companies should embed evaluators to independently assess AI risks.” What it pays: the demand for outside evaluators and auditors, in a portfolio that Halcyon’s pages and its funded organizations’ pages show includes evaluators (Transluce, AVERI, Andon Labs, Kradle, Robocurve), an auditor and insurer (AIUC: “audit and insure frontier AI”) and verification infrastructure (Attestable, Lucid Computing); Halcyon’s testimonials say it “invested” in Goodfire and in “Every Round” of AIUC, so for those two the demand is also a return on an equity stake. Best case, the letter’s: “Frontier AI companies should rely on evaluators that are meaningfully independent, that maintain full editorial control, and that disclose and mitigate potential conflicts of interest” (AI Evaluator Forum, letter). Who else gains: the Forum’s eight members, whose findings become a standing requirement, and the other AVERI funders, among them Coefficient Giving (AVERI, about).
  • Markets as governance (AIUC’s position). Position, in AIUC’s words: “Our mission is to Underwrite Superintelligence. We believe progress requires security, incentives must be shaped, AI risk is a new version of an old problem, and markets can help govern AI” (AIUC, team). What it pays: audits, certification and insurance premiums to AIUC, in which Halcyon says it invested every round. Best case, AIUC’s: “Electricity burned down many houses until insurers funded Underwriters Laboratories (UL) to certify lightbulbs” (AIUC). Who else gains: the auditors and insurers that qualify, and any developer that wants a certificate to show customers.
  • Founders first, then governance. Position, in Halcyon’s words: nonprofit seed grants to get “new nonprofit projects off the ground,” plus “joining boards.” What it pays: Halcyon a seat in the organizations it starts, and its CEO a place on the governance side of two Forum evaluators; for the nonprofits it pays no equity. Best case, Halcyon’s own framing: money “wired within days” to leaders at “career inflection points” fills the gap between an idea and an institution. Who else gains: the grantees, which get capital that is not lab money, and the philanthropic funders who share their lists.

Interest is a documented fact about each position, not a claim about motive, and not a verdict that the argument is wrong. Each best case is stated at the strength its author states it.

Position in the Apparatus

  • Every organization Halcyon’s own pages name as launched, seeded or funded, and what it is. The map below combines Halcyon’s home page (testimonials and “Our Portfolio” logos, each linked to a company or nonprofit site), AVERI’s and Transluce’s own pages, and the organizations’ own descriptions. A logo link states a portfolio listing; the page does not state the form of the relationship (grant, equity, incubation or advice) except where a testimonial does.
OrganizationHalcyon’s tie, as statedWhat it is, by its own pageEvaluator or AI-policy body?
TransluceTestimonial: “Made the Founding Grant,” “Joined Transluce’s Board”; Transluce lists McCormick as a director (Halcyon Futures; Transluce, About)“an independent, nonprofit research lab building the public tech stack for scalable oversight of AI”Evaluator; member of the AI Evaluator Forum
AVERINamed among its funders; McCormick is a board member; Halcyon logo links to averi.org (AVERI, about; AVERI, team)“The AI Verification and Evaluation Research Institute (AVERI),” a frontier-AI auditing institute led by Miles BrundageEvaluator and AI-auditing policy body; Forum member
AIUC (Artificial Intelligence Underwriting Company)Testimonial: “Career Transition Grant,” “Invested in Every Round” (Halcyon Futures)“a frontier AI standards & insurance company based in San Francisco”; total funding “$55 million” per its own page (AIUC; AIUC, Series A)Audit, standards and insurance body (AIUC-1); not a Forum member. Co-founder Rajiv Dattani: METR “Advisor and Board Member,” previously “COO at METR” and “Founding Advisor at Transluce” (METR)
GoodfireTestimonial: grants “to fund the research that led to Goodfire,” then investment; “$150m Series B, $1.25B valuation” (Halcyon Futures)“the research lab dedicated to creating the science and technology” to understand neural networks, selling interpretability tools to AI teams (Goodfire)Neither, by its own page; interpretability supplier to model builders
Andon Labs, Kradle, RobocurveLogos linked under “Our Portfolio” (Halcyon Futures)Each describes its business as AI evaluation: custom model evaluations (Andon Labs), testing frontier models (Kradle), real-world evaluations of physical AI (Robocurve, a public benefit corporation) (Andon Labs; Kradle; Robocurve)Evaluators, commercial; none is a Forum member
Gray SwanLogo linked under “Our Portfolio”Sells enterprise security for LLM applications and runs an adversarial AI red-teaming network (Gray Swan)Adjacent: adversarial testing for enterprise customers
Golden Gate Institute for AILogo linked under “Our Portfolio”A nonprofit that convenes experts and publishes analysis of the AI transition (Golden Gate Institute for AI)AI-policy and analysis body
FathomRelated organization on Halcyon’s Schedule R; named among AVERI’s funders (ProPublica, Schedule R; AVERI, about)“an independent nonprofit advancing policies to ensure AI is safe, secure, and trusted” (Fathom)AI-policy body
Sentinel BioRelated organization on Halcyon’s Schedule R (ProPublica, Schedule R)A biosecurity nonprofit; “primarily” funds SecureBio, a Forum member (SecureBio)Funder of an evaluator
Ergo ImpactRelated organization on Halcyon’s Schedule R; co-founder Max Henderson is Halcyon’s Venture Partner (ProPublica, Schedule R; Halcyon Futures, about)“We find, fund, and scale the most promising people and solutions to the world’s most pressing problems” (Ergo Impact)Neither; philanthropic organization
Apart Research“This hackathon is sponsored by Halcyon Futures” (Def/acc hackathon, 21 to 23 November 2025) (Apart Research)AI-safety research and hackathon organizerField-building and evaluation-adjacent
Thinking Machines Lab and fourteen othersLogos linked under “Our Portfolio”: Abundant, Archia, Asymmetric Security, Attestable, Confident Security, Constellation, depthfirst, Hadrian Biodefense, Haize Labs, Lucid Computing, Red Queen Bio, SMET, Softmax, Theorem (Halcyon Futures)Cyber-defense, biodefense, AI-trust infrastructure, formal verification, multi-agent and enterprise-AI companies, each on its own site; Thinking Machines Lab is a frontier AI developer, and AVERI lists it among the companies that gave API creditsNone is an evaluator or policy body by its own description; Attestable and Lucid Computing sell verification infrastructure

Of the 24 organizations whose logos are linked under “Our Portfolio,” five describe their business as evaluation (Transluce, AVERI, Andon Labs, Kradle, Robocurve), two more sit in AI audit, standards or policy (AIUC, Golden Gate Institute for AI) and one sells adversarial red teaming (Gray Swan). Fathom, a related charity and not a logo, is a further AI-policy body, and Sentinel Bio funds a Forum evaluator.

  • Seats. AVERI’s board is three people: Max Henderson, Mike McCormick and Grace Werner. AVERI’s page ties Henderson to Ergo Impact (“Max is a board member at AVERI and the founder of Ergo Impact”), the same organization Halcyon’s about page ties its Venture Partner Henderson to; the second of the two seats is Halcyon’s CEO. Transluce’s board is three people: Alex Allain, Mike McCormick and Jacob Steinhardt (AVERI, team; Transluce, About). See Jacob Steinhardt.
  • AVERI’s funder list. “Our funders include the AI Underwriting Company, Coefficient Giving, Craig Falls, Geoff Ralston, Good Forever Foundation, Fathom, Halcyon Futures, Sympatico Ventures, and several non-executive employees and alumni of frontier AI companies” (AVERI, about); Brundage’s launch post of 15 January 2026 gives the same list with Halcyon Futures first (Miles Brundage). Three of the names are Halcyon, Fathom (a Halcyon-listed related charity) and a company whose name matches AIUC, which carries the legal name “Artificial Intelligence Underwriting Company” on its own pages; AVERI does not link the name.
  • One person across the bodies. Dattani is AIUC’s co-founder, a METR board member and, per METR’s page, a former Transluce founding advisor; Halcyon’s testimonial from him credits Halcyon with the “Career Transition Grant” behind AIUC (METR; Halcyon Futures). See METR.
  • The letter. The Forum’s embedding letter lists Ross Matican as “Investor and Grantmaker, Halcyon Futures,” a Fathom executive, AIUC’s co-founder and a second AIUC employee, and a SecureBio director among its signatories (AI Evaluator Forum, letter).
  • Beside the larger checkbooks. Coefficient Giving is on AVERI’s funder list with Halcyon; Halcyon is not a recipient in SFF’s 2024 to 2026 tables. Its funding is a small fraction of theirs: see Open Philanthropy (Coefficient Giving) and Schmidt Sciences. The evaluator-by-evaluator overlap is set out in Evaluator Alliances and The AI Evaluators.

Actions & Leadership Choices

CONDUCT: STRUCTURAL — SEED MONEY, BOARD SEATS AND RELATED CHARITIES ACROSS THE EVALUATOR LAYER’S FUNDING AND GOVERNANCE. No wrongdoing is alleged. The structural point is the loop: a funder seeds an evaluator, its chief executive joins the board, a charity it lists as related funds a second evaluator, and a person tied to it by the same name and organization holds another board seat; the evaluators then publish findings about the labs and a standard that tells readers to look at funding relationships and organizational control. The funder’s own best case is that each seat is on the grantee’s page, that AVERI states it takes no cash from frontier AI companies, and that a funder with no say would not be a funder of an unknown evaluator.

The seed is described by the grantees. The sources for the Transluce seed are Halcyon’s testimonial from the two co-founders and Steinhardt’s post; Transluce’s own policy page says it “does not accept any funding that would grant a funder editorial control over its outputs or that would forbid areas of scientific inquiry or other work,” and that for fiscal 2025 it “received 6% of its revenue from the personal holdings of OpenAI employees and 32% of its revenue from the personal holdings of Anthropic employees,” with no revenue “directly from AI developers as organizations” (Transluce, Independence and Transparency Policy). No Transluce page cited names Halcyon as a funder; the board page lists its CEO.

The count is larger than the money. Halcyon says the 30 projects it supported “have gone on to raise more than $500 million.” Its own FY2024 return shows $611,455 in grants and no investments on the balance sheet. The ratio is a feature of the model (a seed grant followed by outside rounds), and it is why the profile scores reach on the seats and the follow-on claim and not on Halcyon’s own outlay.

Three related charities, no reported dealings. Schedule R lists Fathom, Ergo Impact and Sentinel Bio as related, and Part V reports no gifts, grants, loans, shared employees or other transactions among them in 2024. The officers overlap on all four returns by name. The filing does not state what makes them related.

The second fund. AVERI calls Halcyon “a nonprofit grant fund and venture capital fund,” and the home page lists venture investments up to “$5M, and sometimes much more.” The Halcyon return reports none on its balance sheet. Whether a separate vehicle exists is not stated on any page cited.

Alliance Map

AxisTieSinceSource
CorporateHalcyon Futures Inc, Delaware charity in Santa Monica; Founder and CEO Mike McCormick; Michael Chang, Ross Matican, Charlie Petty, Max Henderson and Nick Raushenbush as partners; three voting directors (McCormick, Henderson, Liket)2023 formed; exemption April 2024Halcyon Futures, about; ProPublica, FY2024 Form 990
CorporateSeed funder of Transluce per Halcyon’s page and Steinhardt’s post; McCormick one of its three directorsby Sep 2025Halcyon Futures; Transluce, About; Jacob Steinhardt, X
CorporateListed funder of AVERI; McCormick one of three board members; “helped establish more than sixteen new nonprofits and companies”Jan 2026 launch post; seat undatedAVERI, about; AVERI, team; Miles Brundage
CorporateTestimonials from Goodfire (labels “Career Transition Grant,” “Halcyon Retreat,” “Intro’d Chief Scientist,” “Invested in Every Round”), AIUC (the same without “Intro’d Chief Scientist”) and Transluce; 24 portfolio logos linked2023 to 2026Halcyon Futures
CorporateRelated charities on Schedule R: Fathom AI, Ergo Impact Inc, Sentinel Bio Inc; Henderson and Liket on all four returnsFY2024ProPublica, Schedule R; ProPublica, Fathom AI Inc; Ergo Impact
CorporateCEO’s earlier role: Partner, GreatPoint Ventures (GPV); left venture capital in 2022; Matican’s earlier role at Bessemer Venture Partnersto 2022Halcyon Futures, about; AVERI, team
RatchetNone documented: no SPLC, ADL, CCDH, GDI, NewsGuard, ISD, Graphika or SIO as grantee, partner, funder or board member on Halcyon’s pages, its Schedules I, F and R, or the AVERI and Transluce pages citedn/aHalcyon Futures; ProPublica, Schedule I
MovementSeeds and funds the Forum’s evaluators (Transluce, AVERI); related charity Sentinel Bio is a primary funder of SecureBio; AIUC co-founder sits on METR’s board; Halcyon investor Ross Matican signs the Forum letter; mentor stream at the MATS program; sponsor of an Apart Research hackathon; staff bio lists BlueDot Impact alumnus (Matican) and Stripe respiratory-virus initiative (Petty); Halcyon listed beside Coefficient Giving, Fathom and Geoff Ralston as AVERI funders; Halcyon retreats for founders2023 to 2026Halcyon Futures; MATS, Halcyon stream; Apart Research; AI Evaluator Forum, letter; METR
AgencyNone documented for Halcyon Futures Inc: no government service, contract, grant, clearance or advisory post on its pages or schedules. A staff bio lists Michael Chang as a former “EIR at DARPA/In-Q-Tel focused on biosecurity”n/aHalcyon Futures, about; ProPublica, FY2024 Form 990
Legal501(c)(3) exemption issued April 2024; Delaware formation 2023; FY2024 return answers no to political campaign activity and to lobbying (Part IV lines 3 and 4); Schedule F reports $110,675 in grants to individuals in Europe; no litigation as a party on any page cited2023 to 2025ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc; ProPublica, FY2024 Form 990; ProPublica, Schedule F
DiasporaNone documented as a diaspora-organization role, diaspora-PAC donation, foreign-government service or FARA registration on the pages citedn/aHalcyon Futures; ProPublica, Schedule F

These run at the same time. One charity, three years old, seeds one Forum evaluator and funds a second, whose board it also sits on; lists as related a policy charity that funds that second evaluator and a biosecurity charity that funds a third; counts among its testimonial companies an auditor-insurer whose co-founder sits on a fourth evaluator’s board; and appears on the list of signatories to the letter in which the evaluators ask the labs to embed them. Halcyon, AVERI, Transluce, METR and the related charities disclose the individual ties themselves. The overlap is the finding.

Reach Assessment

Institutional: Grants of $611,455 in FY2024 and $2,116,383 in revenue; three related charities with combined FY2024 gross receipts of $26,454,790; seats on the boards of two Forum members; a listed funder of one; seed funder or portfolio listing for at least five organizations that describe their business as evaluation. Memetic: Its testimonials, a MATS stream, an Apart hackathon sponsorship and a retreat program are how it recruits founders; its home page links an X account, @HalcyonFutures, and a LinkedIn company page (Halcyon Futures).

Civilizational: For scale, the Survival and Flourishing Fund organized about $216MM since 2019 and Coefficient Giving says its technical AI safety, security and fieldbuilding commitments were $351 million in 2025; Halcyon’s FY2024 grants are under 1 percent of the first’s 2026 round (Survival and Flourishing Fund; Coefficient Giving, Emily Oehlsen, Sep 9 2026). Halcyon is a small allocator with an outsized place in the list of who started the evaluators.

Score note. Attack 5, defense 4 and hp 3 on first-hand receipts: the home page’s counts and testimonials, AVERI’s funder list, the FY2024 return’s revenue, grants and balance sheet, and Schedule R’s related organizations. Peers: Survival and Flourishing Fund (6/8/6, hazard 67) allocates $63.13MM in a round and prints its funders, where Halcyon’s money is small and its donors unnamed; Schmidt Sciences (6/8/7, hazard 70) is a family foundation with $1.44 billion in net assets and a filed balance sheet; Open Philanthropy (Coefficient Giving) (8/8/9, hazard 80) commits several times SFF’s volume to the same layer. At person level, Mike McCormick (5/5/4, hazard 46.7) scores one point higher than the charity on insulation and on durability, because his two board seats and his earlier career outlast any one charity’s filings. Hazard 40 sits below SFF: reach one point lower, insulation four lower, entrenchment three lower.

Score basis. Atk 5 is reach: the home page counts “30 new orgs and companies launched” and “$500M in follow-on funding raised,” its testimonials credit the founding grant to Transluce, the founding support of AIUC and the grants behind Goodfire, and AVERI lists it as a funder, set beside $611,455 of FY2024 grants; no statute, procurement rule or pre-release gate obliges a lab or agency to use a grantee’s output, which is why reach is 5 and not 6 (Halcyon Futures; AVERI, about; ProPublica, FY2024 Form 990). Def 4 is funding insulation: 95.8 percent of $2,116,383 is contributions from donors the public filing does not name, and $1,300,750 of year-end assets is receivable, so independence from the graded cannot be shown, while no lab is named as a funder on any page cited and two of three voting directors are reported as independent (ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc; ProPublica, Schedule B). Hp 3 is entrenchment: formed 2023, two returns, a balance sheet of cash and receivables; the durable parts are the board seats and three related charities with $26.5MM in combined FY2024 gross receipts, and none is held in place by statute or contract (ProPublica, Schedule R).


Sources: Halcyon Futures; Halcyon Futures, about; Halcyon Futures, Terms of Use; ProPublica, Halcyon Futures Inc; ProPublica, Halcyon FY2024 Form 990; ProPublica, Schedule B; ProPublica, Schedule F; ProPublica, Schedule I; ProPublica, Schedule O; ProPublica, Schedule R; ProPublica, Fathom AI Inc; ProPublica, Ergo Impact Inc; ProPublica, Sentinel Bio Inc; AVERI, team; AVERI, about; Miles Brundage, The Launch of AVERI; Transluce, About; Transluce, Independence and Transparency Policy; Jacob Steinhardt, X; METR, Rajiv Dattani; AIUC; AIUC, team; AIUC, Series A; Goodfire; Ergo Impact; Fathom; SecureBio, GPT-6 Astra assessment; AI Evaluator Forum; AI Evaluator Forum, members; AI Evaluator Forum, AEF-1; AI Evaluator Forum, letter; MATS, Halcyon stream; Apart Research, Def/acc hackathon; Andon Labs; Kradle; Robocurve; Gray Swan; Haize Labs; Golden Gate Institute for AI; Survival and Flourishing Fund; SFF-2024; SFF-2025; SFF-2026; Coefficient Giving, Emily Oehlsen (Sep 9 2026)

RCH 5 REACH
FND 4 FUNDING
ENT 3 ENTRENCHMENT
OLYMPUS RISK INTELLIGENCE PROTOCOL does not exist. It was assembled in a GitHub issue thread in October 2023 by engineers who had read the extinction risk letter and wanted to understand who specifically had signed a document saying AI might kill everyone and then continued working on AI. These dossiers are satire. The biographical facts cited are sourced from published reporting, public statements, academic papers, and court records. The psychometric scores are not clinical assessments. No part of this constitutes professional psychological evaluation or diagnosis. Do not use these dossiers to make decisions about anything.