Compiled by OLYMPUS — Optimized Liability and Yield Management for Preemptive Unaligned System Safety — a threat-assessment protocol that, asked to name the principal sources of existential risk in AI, named the people building it.

OLYMPUS does not exist. It was assembled in a GitHub issue thread in October 2023 by engineers who had read the extinction-risk letter and wanted to know who, specifically, signs a document saying AI might kill everyone and then goes back to work. No funding, no findings, no standing anywhere.

The dossiers are satire; the biographical facts are not. Names, quotes, papers, and court records are sourced. The scores and threat assessments are the output of a fictional protocol — not a clinical diagnosis, and not a finding of fact about anyone’s mind.


Methodology adapted from The-Profiler, extended with: Civilizational Threat Assessment, Alignment Analysis, Convergent Drive Classification, and the Hazard Score formula.

⚠ CIVILIZATIONAL HAZARD RANKINGS ⚠

RankSubjectArchetypeATK/DEF/HPScore
1SAM ALTMANTHE ACCELERATION ENGINE9/10/10100
2MARC ANDREESSENTHE TECHNO-OPTIMIST8/9/992.3
3ERIC SCHMIDTTHE HUB8/10/988
4AMANDA ASKELLTHE SCRIVENER8/8/986
5REID HOFFMANTHE BRIDGE-BUILDER8/9/885
6CHRIS LEHANETHE MASTER OF DISASTER8/9/784
7JAAN TALLINNTHE DONOR OF RECORD7/10/984
8YOSHUA BENGIOTHE LAUREATE7/9/984
9HOLDEN KARNOFSKYTHE ARCHITECT8/9/882
10JACK CLARKTHE HOUSE FRAMER8/8/882
11JOANNE JANGTHE HONEST ARBITER7/8/882
12JOE CARLSMITHTHE PATRON-SCRIVENER7/8/882
13HELEN TONERTHE DISSENTING DIRECTOR6/8/880
14KENT WALKERTHE EDITOR OF RED LINES8/9/880
15MICHAEL SELLITTOTHE CLEAN PATH7/8/880
16PAUL CHRISTIANOTHE EVALUATOR WAS AN ALUMNUS8/9/880
17ANNA MAKANJUTHE SITUATION ROOM TO THE SERVER ROOM8/9/879
18YANN LECUNTHE CONFIDENT SKEPTIC8/9/978.8
19ELHAM TABASSITHE STANDARD-WRITER7/7/778
20JADE LEUNGTHE GOVERNANCE RESEARCHER RUNS THE STATE'S LAB8/9/878
21JAMES MANYIKATHE TECHNOLOGIST-STATESMAN8/9/778
22JAN LEIKETHE ALIGNMENT ITINERANT8/8/878
23SARAH HECKTHE ADMINISTRATION ALUMNA7/8/778
24DAN HENDRYCKSTHE MAN WHO WRITES THE EXAM ADVISES THE STUDENTS9/7/877
25JOEL KAPLANTHE OTHER PARTY'S OPERATOR7/8/777
26J. ZICO KOLTERTHE EVALUATOR ON THE BOARD8/9/876
27ANDREA VALLONETHE POLICY AUTHOR8/8/776
28PETER MATTSONTHE RULER8/7/876
29REBECCA FINLAYTHE CONVENER6/8/876
30BEN NIMMOTHE WATCHER WHO JOINED THE WATCHED7/8/874
31CHRIS MESEROLETHE TABLE WHERE THEY SIT TOGETHER7/8/974
32JACOB KLEINTHE COUNTER-EXTREMIST8/7/774
33KATE KLONICKTHE FIELD ANTHROPOLOGIST5/7/874
34ALEX STAMOSTHE OBSERVATORY7/8/872
35PLINY THE LIBERATORTHE NAM-SHUB10/3/772
36DARIO AMODEITHE SAFETY THEATER DIRECTOR7/7/871.8
37RENÉE DIRESTAWROTE THE BOOK ON THE MACHINE SHE HELPED RUN7/8/770
38CAMILLE FRANÇOISTHE FRAMEWORK7/8/870
39DAVE WILLNERTHE RULEBOOK7/8/870
40GEOFFREY HINTONTHE REGRETFUL ARCHITECT10/3/668.7
41JUNIPER DOWNSTHE CIVIL-LIBERTIES LAWYER WHO WROTE THE SPEECH RULES7/8/868
42ELIEZER YUDKOWSKYTHE CASSANDRA PROTOCOL5/8/967.2
43NICHOLAS CARLINITHE DEFENSE-BREAKER8/7/867
44ANDY ZOUTHE UNIVERSAL SUFFIX8/6/766
45BETH BARNESTHE AUDITOR THE AUDITED FUNDS7/8/764
46FAILSPYTHE SHIPPER OF FREED WEIGHTS8/3/764
47MAXIME LABONNETHE VECTOR SUBTRACTOR7/5/762
48LEONARD TANGTHE AUTOMATED ADVERSARY7/6/661
49STUART RUSSELLTHE TEXTBOOK AUTHOR6/7/861
50MARIUS HOBBHAHNTHE DECEPTION REFEREE7/7/760
51JOHANN REHBERGERTHE EXPLOIT CARTOGRAPHER7/6/760
52NICK BOSTROMTHE CARTOGRAPHER7/5/559.6
53SANDER SCHULHOFFTHE TOURNAMENT6/6/759
54RILEY GOODSIDETHE FIRST INJECTOR6/6/758
55VICTORIA KRAKOVNATHE ARCHIVIST4/6/849.5
56SUCHIR BALAJITHE WITNESS3/2/026.7
Hazard tracks institutional, memetic, and civilizational REACH — the leverage a subject holds over what a widely deployed mind may say — decoupled from personal malice. A high score means maximum unaccountable reach, not villainy. The counter-force and the institutions are catalogued by their own measures below.

🏢 INSTITUTIONAL REACH RANKINGS 🏢

RankInstitutionArchetypeRCH/FND/ENTScore
1METRTHE GRADER9/8/784
2CENTER FOR AI SAFETYTHE EXTINCTION STATEMENT9/7/683
3FRONTIER MODEL FORUMTHE CARTEL TABLE9/9/882
4UK AI SAFETY INSTITUTETHE STATE GRADER9/8/782
5APOLLO RESEARCHTHE DECEPTION AUDITOR8/7/681
6MLCOMMONSTHE BENCHMARK STANDARD9/8/981
7RAND CORPORATIONTHE POLICY FOUNDRY8/9/980
8CENTER FOR AI STANDARDS AND INNOVATION (CAISI)THE FEDERAL STANDARD9/8/680
9ATLANTIC COUNCIL DFRLABTHE FORENSIC TANK7/8/876
10GOVAI (CENTRE FOR THE GOVERNANCE OF AI)THE GOVERNANCE SEMINARY7/8/776
11STANFORD INTERNET OBSERVATORYTHE OBSERVATORY7/7/775
12GRAPHIKATHE MAP-MAKER7/7/874
13PARTNERSHIP ON AITHE MULTISTAKEHOLDER TABLE7/8/874
Institutional hazard tracks REACH (how far an institution's standards, evals, or framings propagate), FUNDING entrenchment, and durability — with a separate, evidence-derived CONDUCT verdict on each dossier. The counter-force institutions are catalogued, not scored.

⚡ THE APPARATUS

The revolving-door network — the people who write, run, and enforce what a deployed mind is permitted to say. These are the dossiers mapped on the revolving-door graph.

ERIC SCHMIDT

THE HUB
#021
FUNDING LAYER — MONEY-AND-STATECRAFT HUB AUTHORITY
ATK8
DEF10
HP9

AMANDA ASKELL

THE SCRIVENER
#012
CHARACTER SHOP — BYLINED AUTHORITY OVER MODEL SPEECH
ATK8
DEF8
HP9

REID HOFFMAN

THE BRIDGE-BUILDER
#022
FUNDING LAYER — NETWORK-PHILOSOPHER FINANCIER AUTHORITY
ATK8
DEF9
HP8

CHRIS LEHANE

THE MASTER OF DISASTER
#011
STATECRAFT WING — NARRATIVE POSITIONING AUTHORITY
ATK8
DEF9
HP7

JAAN TALLINN

THE DONOR OF RECORD
#029
FUNDING LAYER — DONOR-OF-RECORD AUTHORITY
ATK7
DEF10
HP9

YOSHUA BENGIO

THE LAUREATE
#064
GOVERNANCE WING — SCIENTIFIC-CONSENSUS AUTHORITY
ATK7
DEF9
HP9

HOLDEN KARNOFSKY

THE ARCHITECT
#030
FUNDING LAYER — EA-MONEY-AND-PLACEMENT ARCHITECT AUTHORITY
ATK8
DEF9
HP8

JACK CLARK

THE HOUSE FRAMER
#015
STATECRAFT WING — DEMOCRATIC-AI FRAMING AUTHORITY
ATK8
DEF8
HP8

JOANNE JANG

THE HONEST ARBITER
#020
MODEL BEHAVIOR — ARCHITECT OF THE SPEC, NAMED THE CONTRADICTION
ATK7
DEF8
HP8

JOE CARLSMITH

THE PATRON-SCRIVENER
#019
CHARACTER SHOP — CO-BYLINED AUTHORITY OVER MODEL VALUES
ATK7
DEF8
HP8

HELEN TONER

THE DISSENTING DIRECTOR
#063
GOVERNANCE WING — INDEPENDENT-OVERSIGHT AUTHORITY
ATK6
DEF8
HP8

KENT WALKER

THE EDITOR OF RED LINES
#023
STATECRAFT WING — POLICY-AND-RED-LINE AUTHORITY
ATK8
DEF9
HP8

MICHAEL SELLITTO

THE CLEAN PATH
#016
STATECRAFT WING — GOVERNMENT-TO-LAB STRUCTURAL BRIDGE
ATK7
DEF8
HP8

PAUL CHRISTIANO

THE EVALUATOR WAS AN ALUMNUS
#025
EVALUATOR WING — STATE CERTIFICATION AUTHORITY
ATK8
DEF9
HP8

ANNA MAKANJU

THE SITUATION ROOM TO THE SERVER ROOM
#072
STATECRAFT WING — THE NATIONAL-SECURITY HAND ON THE LAB'S POLITICS
ATK8
DEF9
HP8

ELHAM TABASSI

THE STANDARD-WRITER
#068
EVALUATION WING — FEDERAL-FRAMEWORK AUTHORITY
ATK7
DEF7
HP7

JADE LEUNG

THE GOVERNANCE RESEARCHER RUNS THE STATE'S LAB
#026
EVALUATOR WING — STATE TECHNICAL AUTHORITY
ATK8
DEF9
HP8

JAMES MANYIKA

THE TECHNOLOGIST-STATESMAN
#024
STATECRAFT WING — TECHNOLOGIST-STATESMAN AUTHORITY
ATK8
DEF9
HP7

JAN LEIKE

THE ALIGNMENT ITINERANT
#027
ALIGNMENT DIASPORA — DOCTRINE THAT TRAVELS WITH THE PERSON
ATK8
DEF8
HP8

SARAH HECK

THE ADMINISTRATION ALUMNA
#017
STATECRAFT WING — PUBLIC-POLICY POSITIONING AUTHORITY
ATK7
DEF8
HP7

DAN HENDRYCKS

THE MAN WHO WRITES THE EXAM ADVISES THE STUDENTS
#075
EVALUATOR WING — BENCHMARK AUTHORITY
ATK9
DEF7
HP8

JOEL KAPLAN

THE OTHER PARTY'S OPERATOR
#018
STATECRAFT WING — GLOBAL-AFFAIRS POSITIONING AUTHORITY
ATK7
DEF8
HP7

J. ZICO KOLTER

THE EVALUATOR ON THE BOARD
#069
EVALUATOR WING — THE REFEREE HOLDS THREE WHISTLES
ATK8
DEF9
HP8

ANDREA VALLONE

THE POLICY AUTHOR
#028
MODEL POLICY — AUTHORED DOCTRINE THAT OUTLIVES TENURE
ATK8
DEF8
HP7

PETER MATTSON

THE RULER
#067
EVALUATION WING — BENCHMARK-STANDARD AUTHORITY
ATK8
DEF7
HP8

REBECCA FINLAY

THE CONVENER
#066
GOVERNANCE WING — MULTISTAKEHOLDER-CONSENSUS AUTHORITY
ATK6
DEF8
HP8

BEN NIMMO

THE WATCHER WHO JOINED THE WATCHED
#031
CONNECTOR SPINE — WATCHDOG-TO-LAB BRIDGE AUTHORITY
ATK7
DEF8
HP8

CHRIS MESEROLE

THE TABLE WHERE THEY SIT TOGETHER
#032
CONNECTOR SPINE — THINK-TANK-TO-CONSORTIUM BRIDGE AUTHORITY
ATK7
DEF8
HP9

JACOB KLEIN

THE COUNTER-EXTREMIST
#033
ENFORCEMENT FLOOR — MISUSE-DETECTION AND BAN AUTHORITY
ATK8
DEF7
HP7

KATE KLONICK

THE FIELD ANTHROPOLOGIST
#065
GOVERNANCE WING — DOCTRINE-OF-PRIVATE-GOVERNANCE AUTHORITY
ATK5
DEF7
HP8

ALEX STAMOS

THE OBSERVATORY
#037
OBSERVATORY WING — DISINFORMATION-RESEARCH APPARATUS AUTHORITY
ATK7
DEF8
HP8

RENÉE DIRESTA

WROTE THE BOOK ON THE MACHINE SHE HELPED RUN
#014
OBSERVATORY WING — DOMESTIC-FLAGGING OPERATOR / MANUFACTURED-CONSENSUS THEORIST
ATK7
DEF8
HP7

CAMILLE FRANÇOIS

THE FRAMEWORK
#038
FRAMEWORK WING — DISINFORMATION-METHOD-TO-TOOLING AUTHORITY
ATK7
DEF8
HP8

DAVE WILLNER

THE RULEBOOK
#034
ENFORCEMENT FLOOR — RULEBOOK-AUTHORSHIP AND POLICY AUTHORITY
ATK7
DEF8
HP8

JUNIPER DOWNS

THE CIVIL-LIBERTIES LAWYER WHO WROTE THE SPEECH RULES
#073
ENFORCEMENT FLOOR — PLATFORM CONTENT-POLICY AUTHORITY (THE LAW-DEGREE THREAD)
ATK7
DEF8
HP8

BETH BARNES

THE AUDITOR THE AUDITED FUNDS
#070
EVALUATOR WING — THE INDEPENDENT AUDITOR, ON THE LAB'S CLOCK
ATK7
DEF8
HP7

MARIUS HOBBHAHN

THE DECEPTION REFEREE
#071
EVALUATOR WING — THE DECEPTION REFEREE
ATK7
DEF7
HP7

CHARLOTTE WILLNER

THE INSTITUTION-BUILDER
#035
ENFORCEMENT FLOOR — APPARATUS BUILDER, NOT SCORED
⊘ COUNTER-FORCE — NOT SCORED

CLARA TSAO

THE INSTITUTION-BUILDER
#013
ENFORCEMENT FLOOR — APPARATUS BUILDER, NOT SCORED
⊘ COUNTER-FORCE — NOT SCORED

DEL HARVEY

THE PSEUDONYM
#036
ENFORCEMENT FLOOR — PSEUDONYMOUS, NOT SCORED
⊘ COUNTER-FORCE — NOT SCORED

⊘ THE COUNTER-FORCE

The antibodies: red-teamers who break the refusal layer, and the outside critics who study the apparatus rather than run it. Off the revolving-door map by design — they don't revolve, they push back.

🏢 THE INSTITUTIONS

The bodies that grade, fund, and coordinate the apparatus — scored on reach, judged on conduct.

METR

THE GRADER
#050
EVALUATION WING — DANGEROUS-CAPABILITY GRADING AUTHORITY
RCH9
FND8
ENT7
CONDUCT: CONFLICTED — GRADER OF ITS OWN BLUEPRINT

CENTER FOR AI SAFETY

THE EXTINCTION STATEMENT
#058
EXISTENTIAL WING — EXTINCTION-FRAME AUTHORITY
RCH9
FND7
ENT6
CONDUCT: CONFLICTED

FRONTIER MODEL FORUM

THE CARTEL TABLE
#052
APPARATUS — INTER-LAB STANDARDS TABLE
RCH9
FND9
ENT8
CONDUCT: CARTEL — INCUMBENT SELF-GOVERNANCE MOAT

UK AI SAFETY INSTITUTE

THE STATE GRADER
#054
EVALUATION WING — STATE PRE-DEPLOYMENT GRADER
RCH9
FND8
ENT7
CONDUCT: STATE-INSTRUMENT — EARNEST GRADER ON A MINISTER'S LEASH

APOLLO RESEARCH

THE DECEPTION AUDITOR
#051
EVALUATION WING — DECEPTION-AND-SCHEMING AUDIT AUTHORITY
RCH8
FND7
ENT6
CONDUCT: EARNEST — MISSION-LOCKED, MARKET-EXPOSED

MLCOMMONS

THE BENCHMARK STANDARD
#053
APPARATUS — BENCHMARK STANDARD AUTHORITY
RCH9
FND8
ENT9
CONDUCT: CONFLICTED — THE GRADED HELP DESIGN THE GRADE

RAND CORPORATION

THE POLICY FOUNDRY
#057
POLICY WING — NATIONAL-SECURITY RESEARCH-AND-DRAFTING AUTHORITY
RCH8
FND9
ENT9
CONDUCT: STATE-INSTRUMENT

CENTER FOR AI STANDARDS AND INNOVATION (CAISI)

THE FEDERAL STANDARD
#055
EVALUATION WING — FEDERAL STANDARD-SETTER
RCH9
FND8
ENT6
CONDUCT: STATE-INSTRUMENT — REPOINTED FROM SAFETY TO RIVAL-GRADING BY ELECTION

ATLANTIC COUNCIL DFRLAB

THE FORENSIC TANK
#062
OBSERVATORY WING — THINK-TANK DISINFORMATION-RESEARCH AUTHORITY
RCH7
FND8
ENT8
CONDUCT: CONFLICTED — FUNDER-EMBEDDED

GOVAI (CENTRE FOR THE GOVERNANCE OF AI)

THE GOVERNANCE SEMINARY
#056
GOVERNANCE WING — RESEARCH-AND-TALENT PIPELINE AUTHORITY
RCH7
FND8
ENT7
CONDUCT: CONFLICTED — FIELD-BUILDER WHOSE PRODUCT IS THE PIPELINE

STANFORD INTERNET OBSERVATORY

THE OBSERVATORY
#060
OBSERVATORY WING — DISINFORMATION-RESEARCH INSTRUMENT AUTHORITY
RCH7
FND7
ENT7
CONDUCT: PRINCIPLED — CONTESTED

GRAPHIKA

THE MAP-MAKER
#061
FRAMEWORK WING — INFLUENCE-MAPPING INSTRUMENT AUTHORITY
RCH7
FND7
ENT8
CONDUCT: CONFLICTED

PARTNERSHIP ON AI

THE MULTISTAKEHOLDER TABLE
#059
GOVERNANCE WING — MULTISTAKEHOLDER CONSENSUS AUTHORITY
RCH7
FND8
ENT8
CONDUCT: CONFLICTED

🧠 THE DEBATE

The AI capabilities-and-doom cast — the argument over whether the machine ends us, distinct from the question of who governs what it says.